Regulatory News:
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A flawed strategic vision for GPA
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Gross overestimation of potential synergies
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Significant execution risks
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Highly dilutive for GPA shareholders
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A transaction that destroys value, by transforming GPA into a non
controlling investment vehicle with a holding company discount
The Board of Directors of Casino Guichard-Perrachon ("Casino")
(Paris:CO) met today under the chairmanship of Mr. Jean-Charles Naouri
to review the terms of the financial proposal contemplated by Gama 2 SPE
Empreendimentos e Participacoes ("Gama"), Mr. Abilio Diniz and Carrefour
for the proposed merger of GPA with Carrefour’s Brazilian business,
accompanied by the taking of a minority stake in Carrefour SA.
At the conclusion of the meeting, the Board observed unanimously,
with the exception of Mr. Diniz, that the transaction is contrary to
GPA’s interests, as well as those of all of its shareholders and Casino.
The Board reaffirmed its support for Casino’s international development
strategy focused on high-growth countries, as illustrated by the recent
acquisition of Carrefour’s activities in Thailand and in the
reinforcement of Casino’s capital position in GPA.
The Board also reaffirmed its strategic commitment to Brazil, which is a
major focus of development for the Group, and to GPA (of which Casino is
the most significant shareholder, with 43% of the total capital and as a
holder of co-control via Wilkes). Casino has been an active and faithful
shareholder of GPA for more than twelve years. As with its other
international subsidiaries (Big C in Thailand, Exito in Colombia),
Casino has consistently and actively supported GPA in a variety of areas
(CRM, private label, development of convenience stores, etc.).
The Board has considered the studies conducted by its financial
advisors, Banco Santander, Goldman Sachs, Messier-Maris & Partners and
Rothschild & Cie, the report of Merrill Lynch (subsidiary of Bank of
America), as well as the study conducted by the strategy consultant
Roland Berger regarding the economic aspects of the proposed transaction.
The Board came to the following assessment of the Gama proposal and its
possible consequences both for GPA and its shareholders:
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This transaction is based on a flawed strategic vision for GPA
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A major reinforcement in a declining format:
- In Brazil, the transaction would result in a doubling of sales
in the hypermarket sector (increasing from R$ 11 to 26 billion
and from 47% to 51% of total food sales) in spite of the
continuing decline of market share for this sector, which has,
consistent with trends in other geographic areas, continued to
decrease (from 56% to 54% between 2008 and 20101,
having a growth 5 percentage points lower than the market
average).
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An uncontrolled geographic expansion in low-growth areas:
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minority shareholding in Carrefour does not provide any adequate
internationalization of GPA, which should control any such
expansion;
- The international expansion of GPA should focus
on high-growth countries, whereas mature European markets
represent nearly two-thirds of all Carrefour sales.
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Taking a position in Carrefour is a risky investment, taking into
account the market’s doubts regarding its strategy given its
overexposure to mature markets with weak growth prospects and to
the lowest-growth store formats.
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The proposed synergies are grossly overestimated
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Gama’s estimated synergies in support of this transaction are well
above the levels that have been proposed in the past in connection
with similar transactions. They amount in effect to 3.2% of
combined 2010 sales as compared to on average of approximately 1%
for synergies announced in connection with ten comparable
transactions;
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These estimates fail to account for divestitures that will be
necessary, including costs associated with implementing these
synergies, which will be substantial, as well as the time needed
to phase in synergies;
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Overall, the detailed and documented study conducted by Roland
Berger demonstrates that the realistic potential for synergies in
a full year could in a reasonable time period, at best attain 0.8%
of combined sales;
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The recent record of mergers amongst major retailers demonstrates
that actual amounts achieved rarely match the initial estimates.
For example, commentators have noted that no improvement of the
operating margin had been achieved 2 years following the
Carrefour/Promodès merger, despite the expected synergies of 2.3%
European sales that had initially been announced.
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The execution risks are high
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An excessive concentration in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro
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Roland Berger estimates that in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro,
where the two companies directly compete, GPA and Carrefour Brazil
have a combined market share of respectively 63% and 40%.
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The two retail networks are direct competitors and accordingly
complement each other poorly:
- Thus, 40% of stores compete
in the same customer catchment area. In regard to hypermarkets and
cash & carry stores, the percentage reaches 71% in Sao Paolo and
43% in Rio de Janeiro
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Significant divestitures will be unavoidable and have not been
taken into account:
- GOAssociados, economic antitrust
consultants, represented by Mr. Gesner Oliveira, former President
of CADE, the Brazilian competition authority, advises that the
"concentration created by this project would be excessive in
numerous municipalities. Under these circumstances, it is
unavoidable that the competition authorities will significantly
restrict the scope of the new entity. In addition, the purchasing
power represented by the new entity may lead to the imposition of
additional limitations, with respect to which it is impossible to
foresee the exact nature and effects on the activities of the new
entity.”
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GPA’s management risks are high:
- GPA is currently managing
the process of integrating Nova Casas Bahia, the core non-food
products unit of the company, which, with sales of approximately
20 billion R$, is a major project for the group’s expansion. In
this context, adding a second managerial challenge today is
premature. The merger between Carrefour and Promodes demonstrates
the types of difficulties that major mergers in the food retailing
sector can encounter.
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The financial terms of the transaction impose a massive and
entirely unjustified dilution on GPA shareholders
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Gama’s offer is based on a senseless dilution of GPA’s current
shareholders through the entry of BNDES and BTG Pactual for 2
billion Euros:
- GPA’s financial structure is sound, with a
ratio of net financial debt to EBITDA of 2011 effective as of
March 2011 of .7x2;
- the sole purpose of the
dilution is to increase the size of a minority stake in Carrefour,
at a premium over the market price, an investment which presents
significant risks for GPA and that GPA shareholders can directly
undertake should they so wish.
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The dilution would be undertaken at a significant and unjustified
discount
- the dilution would be undertaken at 64.7 R$ per
preferred share (PN), representing a significant discount from
GPA’s intrinsic value (on average 82 R$ according to analysts) and
of the market value of the preferred shares, which is all the more
surprising given that it is provided on an exclusive basis to new
shareholders who bring neither relevant industry or strategic
expertise;
- this would dilute all of GPA’s current
shareholders, without any possibility for current shareholders to
benefit from a preferential subscription right.
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GPA would lose control of its assets, with a depressed multiple
and no premium:
- the proposed parity for the GPA – Carrefour
Brazil merger, which provides for a multiple inferior to 7.0x 2011
EBITDA3, penalizes GPA, failing to take into account
the superiority of GPA’s assets as compared to those of Carrefour.
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The transaction transforms GPA, an operating company, into a
financial holding company of minority investments which is likely to
trade at a significant discount
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GPA’s substance would be profoundly changed, because GPA will lose
control of its assets and become a pure financial holding company.
The stock will be unattractive given that:
- GPA will control
none of its assets, holding only 50% of its Brazilian assets and
11.7% of Carrefour;
- GPA will no longer consolidate its
assets from 2013 other than through the equity method;
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The envisioned governance will harm GPA
- The proposed
governance structure, notably including a ceiling on voting rights
of 15%, is contrary to modern governance principles;
- There
will be no strong shareholders capable of assisting management in
major decisions;
- Its shareholding base will be dispersed
with different investment horizons for different kinds of
shareholders.
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A significant holding company discount is foreseeable, which will
destroy considerable value:
- In light of its structure as an
investment vehicle, the company will be subject to a significant
holding company discount. Holding company discounts observed on
the Brazilian market average 18%4 consistent with
levels observed elsewhere;
- This trading discount will erase
the effects of synergies and may even destroy value for GPA’s
shareholders.
Under these circumstances, the Board of Directors, after considering the
reports referred to above, and hearing the summary of the report of
Merril Lynch (subsidiary of Bank of America) from the perspective of all
of GPA’s shareholders, unanimously observed, with the exception of Mr
Abilio Diniz, that the financial transaction proposed is contrary to the
interests of GPA, to all of GPA’s shareholders and to Casino. It was
also noted that the proposal is unsolicited, hostile and illegal.
During the board meeting Mr Abilio Diniz who took part in the
discussions, reaffirmed his support for the transaction and elected not
to participate in the vote.
The Board has accordingly instructed its Chairman to present as soon as
possible the position of Casino to the Wilkes board of directors, and,
more generally, to defend Casino’s position, by all appropriate
measures, in accordance with existing agreements and Brazilian
regulations.
1 Source = Roland Berger.
2 Based on the consensus for GPA (Source: Factset), and the
net financial debt at March 31, 2011.
3 Based on the consensus for GPA (Source: Factset), the net
financial debt at March 31, 2011 GPA and a value of R $ 66 per share
4 Source: Factset. Average observed from January 2010 for the
listed Brazilian listed companies Itaùsa, Bradespar and Metalùrgica
Gerdau
