ACE Limited (NYSE:ACE) announced today that the company is providing
further detail to help clarify ACE’s total exposures to potential loss
related to its variable annuity reinsurance business. The clarification
supplements a Form 10-Q that the company filed with the SEC on November
7, 2008.
In the 10-Q, the company said its Net Amount at Risk (NAR) associated
with its variable annuity death benefit reinsurance was $6.5 billion at
September 30, 2008. It is important to note that NAR is not a
measurement of risk but rather a metric used in the life insurance
industry to indicate total exposure if all covered individuals were to
die immediately with account values fixed at current market levels. Such
a scenario is obviously extremely unlikely and no company assumes this
event will ever happen. In addition, this metric does not include any
offset for current reserves held or for future premiums or for
discounting – again, because the assumption is the simultaneous deaths
of all lives covered in the program. While this metric has value in
undertaking relative comparisons, as well as other technical
applications, it is not relevant to a real world understanding of ACE's
variable annuity reinsurance business.
"Using the NAR as a measure of risk is like deciding that the world is
literally ending tomorrow," said Evan G. Greenberg, Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer of ACE Limited. "It is essentially measuring insurance
risk solely by adding together all of the limits of all policies issued
and then assuming that every one must be paid at once. It is, frankly,
completely incompatible with the nature of the insurance business and
with reality as we know it."
The more appropriate way of evaluating the risk associated with the
company’s variable annuity reinsurance business is to understand the
reserves that have been posted as well as the sensitivities of those
reserves to changes in market conditions. The company recorded the level
of those reserves and sensitivities in the 10-Q.
The company also disclosed expected premiums and claims payments for
this line of business for the next 12 months. This disclosure clearly
indicates that the variable annuity reinsurance business has no cash
flow or liquidity concerns. Based on market conditions as of September
30, 2008, the company expects to earn between $150 million and $200
million in operating income on this line of business in 2009. Even under
current market conditions, the company would expect to generate
reasonable operating income on this line of business for 2009. As a
reminder, substantial premiums will continue into the future and
reserves are established to offset future losses. As a result, an
increase in claims paid does not translate directly into a reduction in
income.
There are distinct differences between the company’s position as a
reinsurer and that of a direct writer of variable annuities:
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ACE does not reinsure the "base contract” for any of its variable
annuity guarantee reinsurance clients. ACE does not have any deferred
acquisition cost (DAC) exposure to falling equity markets or account
values nor does it have DAC exposure to increasing policyholder lapses.
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ACE’s premiums for almost all variable annuity guarantee reinsurance
treaties do not fall as equity markets and account values fall. For
these treaties the run rate of premiums will only be reduced for
policyholder lapses and deaths.
-
ACE includes claim limits on all variable annuity guarantee
reinsurance contracts. The exact limits vary by contract and examples
of typical contract provisions were provided in the 10-Q. With some
minor exceptions, claims in excess of annual limits do not carry over
to future years.
As a final point, the company did not stop writing this business in 2007
because of a concern that it was under-priced. The decision was based on
the company’s risk management judgment that it had sufficient aggregate
exposure to this long-tail catastrophe line of business.
The ACE Group of Companies is a global leader in insurance and
reinsurance serving a diverse group of clients. Headed by ACE Limited,
the ACE Group of Companies conducts its business on a worldwide basis
with operating subsidiaries in more than 50 countries. Additional
information can be found at: www.acelimited.com.
Cautionary Statement Regarding
Forward-Looking Statements:
Forward-looking statements made in this press release, such as those
related to ACE’s variable annuity reinsurance business, as well as
economic conditions, company performance, reserves and valuations,
reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and
financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor
provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Such
statements involve risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual
results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.
For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements described above
could be affected by continued adverse economic and insurance industry
developments such as those of recent months, as well as competition,
pricing and policy term trends, the levels of new and renewal business
achieved, market acceptance, changes in demand, the frequency of
unpredictable catastrophic events, actual loss experience, uncertainties
in the reserving or settlement process, investment portfolio
performance, integration activities and unexpected financial or
operational performance with respect to acquired companies, unexpected
effects or difficulties relating to the Company’s recent
re-domestication to Switzerland, new theories of liability, judicial,
legislative, regulatory and other governmental
developments,
litigation tactics and developments, investigation developments and
actual settlement terms, the amount and timing of reinsurance
recoverable, credit developments among reinsurers, actual market
developments, rating agency action, possible terrorism or the outbreak
and effects of war and economic, political, regulatory, insurance and
reinsurance business conditions, as well as management’s response to
these factors, and other factors identified in the Company’s filings
with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not
to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak
only as of the dates on which they are made.
The Company
undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any
forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information,
future events or otherwise.