15.11.2012 07:19
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Agile Property Holdings Limited -- Moody's: Refinancing risk for Chinese high-yield issuers manageable

Hong Kong, November 15, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service says that the level of refinancing risk for Chinese high-yield corporate issuers is manageable from now until 2014, despite some deterioration in the sector's liquidity profile, as evidenced by the Asian Liquidity Stress Index published on 12 November.

Moreover, the low level of maturing offshore debt plus increasingly diversified funding sources bodes well for the sector.

"An increased variety of funding channels is now available to issuers, including access to a liquid onshore financial system, equity-raisings from strategic investors, asset disposals, and ongoing access to the offshore USD bond market, particularly for property developers," says Alan Gao, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

Gao was speaking on the release of a Moody's special comment, which he co-authored with Franco Leung, Assistant Vice President, titled, "Refinancing Risk For Chinese High-Yield Companies To 2014 Is Manageable."

"Moody's notes that a liquid onshore financial system -- including bank loans, trust loans, and corporate bonds for industrial corporates -- as well as ongoing access to the offshore USD bond market, especially for property developers, supports the refinancing ability of Chinese high-yield issuers," says Gao.

Issuers which have successfully refinanced through access to onshore and offshore funds include property developers and industrial companies.

"While lowly rated developers -- B3 or below -- will continue to face challenges in tapping the offshore bond markets for refinancing, they have either monetized assets, or brought in new equity investors to address their liquidity requirements," says Franco Leung.

All this is occurring against a backdrop of tightened liquidity, as indicated by Moody's Asian Liquidity Stress Index, which increases when speculative-grade liquidity appears to decrease. During October, the Index crept close to the high of 37% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2008, the height of the global financial crisis. The China sub-index increased further to 32%, its fourth consecutive monthly rise.

Moody's also notes that relatively low levels of offshore bonds will mature from now to 2014. A total of $1.4 billion in offshore bonds for rated Chinese high-yield corporates will mature by end-2013, increasing to $5.5 billion by end-2014.

The required refunding looks manageable when compared with annual Asian high-yield bond issuance of over $13 billion during 2010-2011. Of this total, Chinese issuers accounted for around $8 billion in each year.

Despite a hiatus in 2H2011, new Chinese high-yield issuance resumed from early 2012 and has picked up momentum in recent months. Total new issuance from 1 January to 14 November 2012 was $6.5 billion and more is expected before end-2012.

Subscribers can access this report via this link: http://www.moodys.com/research/Refinancing-Risk-for-Chinese-High-Yield-Companies-To-2014-Is--PBC_147325. ***

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London+44-20-7772-5456, New York+1-212-553-0376, Tokyo+813-5408-4110, Hong Kong+852-3758-1350, Sydney+61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

Alan Gao Vice President - Senior Analyst Corporate Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service Hong Kong Ltd. 24/F One Pacific Place 88 Queensway Hong Kong China (Hong Kong S.A.R.) JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350 SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077 Gary Lau MD - Corporate Finance Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350 SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd. 24/F One Pacific Place 88 Queensway Hong Kong China (Hong Kong S.A.R.) JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350 SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY'S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

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MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation ("MCO"), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations -- Corporate Governance -- Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."

Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY'S affiliate, Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657, which holds Australian Financial Services License no. 336969. This document is intended to be provided only to "wholesale clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY'S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a "wholesale client" and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to "retail clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody's Japan K.K. ("MJKK") are MJKK's current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt-like securities. In such a case, "MIS" in the foregoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with "MJKK". MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly owned by Moody's Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.

This credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness or a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be dangerous for retail investors to make any investment decision based on this credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.

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