11.12.2012 22:47
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Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta -- Moody's changes outlook on Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta ratings to stable

Mexico, December 11, 2012 -- Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V. has changed the outlook to stable from negative for the ratings on the Certificados Bursatiles Fiduciarios of Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta. The ratings are affirmed at A1.mx (Mexico National Scale) and Ba1 (Global scale, local currency). The change in outlook stems from the turnaround growth in tolled transactions which are showing a growth of 6% through the third quarter of 2012. While the improvement falls far short of recouping the close to 30% drop in tolled transactions since 2008, it is a change in the right direction in an environment in which the public safety and drug related security issues appear to have tempered. The rating is unlikely to go up at this time, but could improve over the next 18-24 months with a return to traffic in the range of that experienced in 2008 that would once again provide high operating margins and strong debt service coverage above 1.5 times. On the flip side, additional drops in traffic that leads to a 40% - 50% decline from that experienced in 2008, and/or declines in revenue of another 5% -- 10% is likely to push the rating down once again.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Revenue is expected to rebound to more typical levels this year, and through September toll collections are trending to be up 20% from that of the same period last year. Revenue is also trending above that of the closing financial model, which points to the toll road's ability to meet debt service requirements going forward given that annual debt service remains level at an average of 45 million UDIs through the life of the debt.

The debt service coverage (DSCR) ratio in 2011 was 1.08 times, after accounting for capital spending for reconstruction related to the damage caused by Hurricane Alex. The funds would have otherwise been used to prepay debt per the trust agreement restrictions, after meeting the mandatory debt service. The debt service coverage ratio for the first semi-annual period of 2012 was 1.15 times indicating more robust net revenues given the increase in the traffic activity. The second semi-annual the year will be made on December 17 and the DSCR is expected to be at least at similar levels. Funds will be sufficient to make a prepayment in the amount of approximately MXP 26 million, indicating the improvement in the financial footing of the toll road project.

Located in the State of Nuevo León (Ba1/A1.mx/NEG), the Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta is a 29km toll road which serves as one of the primary east-west approaches to the municipality of Monterrey (Ba2/A2.mx/STA) metropolitan area. The road provides an important connector to one of the largest Pemex refineries in the country, which is located along the toll road in Cadereyta. Nuevo León's economy is among the most dynamic in Mexico, and is the third largest economy in Mexico contributing 7.5% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP per capita is approximately 180% of the national level.

An important part of the metro area's economic base consists of industrial conglomerates and multinational corporations, which support a high level of economic diversification. Additionally, the road is a vital route for traffic to the U.S. via its connection to the federal road that leads to Laredo, Tx. Approximately 60% of the trade from Mexico goes through the crossing at Laredo, thus making truck traffic an important component of the road's users.

For a more detailed discussion on the credit fundamentals of Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta, please see the most recent Credit Opinion.

Autopista Monterrey Cadereyta has historically been rated under the Operating Toll Roads rating methodology and is in transition to being rated under the Government Owned Toll Roads rating methodology, which was updated and published in October 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com.mx for a copy of the methodologies.

The date of the last Credit Rating Action was August 11, 2011.

Moody's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".mx" for Mexico. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale ratings, please refer to Moody's Rating Methodology published in October 2012 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.mx.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.mx.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity prior to public dissemination.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.

A general listing of the sources of information used in the rating process, and the structure and voting process for the rating committees responsible for the assignment and monitoring of ratings can be found in the Disclosure tab in www.moodys.com.mx.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com.mx for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com.mx for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com.mx for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com.mx for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

The ratings issued by Moody's de Mexico are opinions regarding the credit quality of securities and/or their issuers and not a recommendation to invest in any such security and/or issuer.

Laura Barrientos VP - Senior Credit Officer Corporate Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Chee Mee Hu MD - Project Finance Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V Ave.Paseo de las Palmas No. 405 - 502 Col. Lomas de Chapultepec Mexico, DF 11000 Mexico JOURNALISTS: 001-888-779-5833 SUBSCRIBERS:52-55-1253-5700(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY'S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

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MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation ("MCO"), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations -- Corporate Governance -- Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."

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