26.11.2012 07:23
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Moody's: Australian Prime RMBS Arrears Improved in the Third Quarter of 2012

Sydney, November 26, 2012 -- Published in our "Australian RMBS Performance Review Q3 2012", the prime 30-plus arrears rate improved in the third quarter to 1.29% in September, from 1.66% in June.

While the overall index is at 1.29%, considerable variation exists within the market. Historically, major bank deals have performed better than those of non-major bank ADIs, which have, in turn, outperformed non-ADIs. The prime 30-plus arrears rate for the major banks is at 0.93%, non-major bank ADIs at 1.75%, and non-ADIs at 2.67%. Major banks and non-major bank ADIs have seen considerable improvement in their arrears performance over the quarter while the performance of non-ADIs has remained stable.

The 30-plus arrears rate for deals with 100% low doc loans has witnessed continued increases over recent quarters. However, this trend has abated somewhat in the third quarter and the arrears rate has fallen marginally to 5.22% from 5.72%. Borrowers in these deals provide little or, in the case of no doc loans, no proof of income . The higher delinquency of these loans can be explained by the cash flow volatility of the borrowers, who are typically self-employed. Excluding 100% low doc deals, the prime 30-plus arrears rate would have been six basis points lower, at 1.23% in September.

Overall losses are still very low by international standards with the worst performing vintage, 2004, having incurred 37 basis points of losses to date. Further, many of these losses are covered by excess spread and lenders mortgage insurance.

The prime redemption rate has been around 18%-21% since mid-2011 and was at 18.84% as of September.

The non-conforming 30-plus arrears rate fell to 10.66% in September from 12.47% in June. However, this is 1.16% higher than at the same period last year when the 30-plus arrears rate was 9.50%.

The redemption rates for non-conforming deals have fallen over recent quarters, likely the result of limited refinancing opportunities. In September, total redemption rate for non-conforming deals was 23.95%.

Economic indicators were stable in the third quarter of 2012.

Unemployment remained relatively constant at 5.44%, but regional variation was strong. Unemployment in Western Australia was 4.05% in September compared to 7.29% in Tasmania.

Home prices ended the third quarter with a mostly negative year-on-year change. Perth and Sydney saw modest growth of 0.77% and 0.90% respectively, while all other capital cities saw year-on-year price declines. Melbourne had the largest decline of 3.81%. Overall, prices across Australia fell 1.20%.

ABOUT THE REPORT

Moody's publishes this quarterly Australian RMBS Performance Review as soon as it receives performance data on the transactions, so typically two months after each quarter.

The report is now available on www.moodys.com. Subscribers can access the report via this link: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF308535.

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York+1-212-553-0376, London+44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo+813-5408-4110, Hong Kong+852-3758-1350, Sydney+61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

Bryan Reid Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody's Investors Service Pty. Ltd. Level 10 1 O'Connell Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia JOURNALISTS: (612) 9270-8102 SUBSCRIBERS: (612) 9270-8100 Koji Kumamaru MD - Structured Finance Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: (03) 5408-4110 SUBSCRIBERS: (03) 5408-4100 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Pty. Ltd. Level 10 1 O'Connell Street Sydney NSW 2000 Australia JOURNALISTS: (612) 9270-8102 SUBSCRIBERS: (612) 9270-8100 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

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All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY'S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY'S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Under no circumstances shall MOODY'S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error negligent or otherwise or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY'S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY'S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. Each user of the information contained herein must make its own study and evaluation of each security it may consider purchasing, holding or selling.

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Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY'S affiliate, Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657, which holds Australian Financial Services License no. 336969. This document is intended to be provided only to "wholesale clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY'S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a "wholesale client" and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to "retail clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody's Japan K.K. ("MJKK") are MJKK's current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt-like securities. In such a case, "MIS" in the foregoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with "MJKK". MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly owned by Moody's Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.

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