Moody's Downgrades Five, and Affirms 12 CMBS Classes of JPMCC 2004-CIBC10
New York, November 09, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) downgraded the ratings of five classes, and affirmed the ratings of 12 classes of J.P. Morgan Chase Commercial Mortgage Securities Corp., Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2004-CIBC10 as follows:
Cl. A-5, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 7, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-6, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 7, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-1A, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 7, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-J, Affirmed at Aa1 (sf); previously on Dec 10, 2010 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)
Cl. B, Downgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Dec 10, 2010 Downgraded to A2 (sf)
Cl. C, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Dec 10, 2010 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Cl. D, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Dec 10, 2010 Downgraded to Baa2 (sf)
Cl. E, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Nov 10, 2011 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)
Cl. F, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Nov 10, 2011 Downgraded to B2 (sf)
Cl. G, Affirmed at Caa3 (sf); previously on Dec 10, 2010 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. H, Affirmed at Ca (sf); previously on Dec 10, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. J, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 10, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. K, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 10, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. L, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 10, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. M, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 10, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. N, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Nov 19, 2009 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. X-1, Affirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
The downgrades are due to higher than expected losses for the pool resulting from realized and anticipated losses from troubled loans and loans in special servicing, along with concerns about increased interest shortfalls.
The affirmations are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the Herfindahl Index (Herf), remaining within acceptable ranges. Based on our current base expected loss, the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient to maintain their current ratings. The rating of the IO Class, Class X-1, is consistent with the expected credit performance of its referenced classes and thus is affirmed.
Moody's rating action reflects a cumulative base expected loss of 9% of the current balance, the same as at last review. Moody's current base expected loss plus cumulative realized losses is 7.5% of the original balance as compared to 6.7% at last review. Moody's provides a current list of base losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255. Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels. If future performance materially declines, the expected level of credit enhancement and the priority in the cash flow waterfall may be insufficient for the current ratings of these classes.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with eight straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Slow recovery in the office sector continues with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending resulting in increased sales. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario maintains its forecast of relatively robust growth in the US and an expectation of a mild recession in the euro area for 2012. Downside risks remain significant, and elevated downside risks and their materialization could pose a serious threat to the outlook. Major downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets; an oil supply shock; and material fiscal tightening in the US given recent political gridlock. Healthy but below-trend growth in GDP is expected through the rest of this year and next with risks trending to the downside.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating U.S. CMBS Conduit Transactions" published in September 2000, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based CMBS Conduit Model v 2.61 which is used for both conduit and fusion transactions. Conduit model results at the Aa2 (sf) level are driven by property type, Moody's actual and stressed DSCR, and Moody's property quality grade (which reflects the capitalization rate used by Moody's to estimate Moody's value). Conduit model results at the B2 (sf) level are driven by a paydown analysis based on the individual loan level Moody's LTV ratio. Moody's Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure of loan level diversity, is a primary determinant of pool level diversity and has a greater impact on senior certificates. Other concentrations and correlations may be considered in our analysis. Based on the model pooled credit enhancement levels at Aa2 (sf) and B2 (sf), the remaining conduit classes are either interpolated between these two data points or determined based on a multiple or ratio of either of these two data points. For fusion deals, the credit enhancement for loans with investment-grade credit assessments is melded with the conduit model credit enhancement into an overall model result. Fusion loan credit enhancement is based on the credit assessment of the loan which corresponds to a range of credit enhancement levels. Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are selected based on loan level diversity, pool leverage and other concentrations and correlations within the pool. Negative pooling, or adding credit enhancement at the credit assessment level, is incorporated for loans with similar credit assessments in the same transaction.
Moody's review also incorporated the CMBS IO calculator ver 1.1, which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit estimates; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type corresponding to an IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point . For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator ver1.0 would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.
Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 54, compared to 62 at Moody's prior review.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and a proprietary program that highlights significant credit changes that have occurred in the last month as well as cumulative changes since the last full transaction review. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior transaction review is summarized in a press release dated November 10, 2011. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
As of the October 12, 2012 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 40% to $1.18 billion from $1.96 billion at securitization. The Certificates are collateralized by 157 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 7% of the pool, with the top ten non-defeased loans representing 27% of the pool. Seventeen loans, representing 11% of the pool, have defeased and are secured by U.S. Government securities.
Thirty-one loans, representing 16% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans which meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of our ongoing monitoring of a transaction, Moody's reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could impact performance.
Eighteen loans have been liquidated from the pool, resulting in a realized loss of $40.7 million (18% loss severity). Currently five loans, representing 11% of the pool, are in special servicing. The largest specially serviced loan is the Continental Plaza Loan ($88.0 million -- 7.4% of the pool). The loan is secured by three office buildings and a single story retail center totaling 639,000 square feet (SF) which are located in Hackensack, New Jersey. The loan was transferred to special servicing in April 2009 due to imminent default and the property was foreclosed in February 2010. The property was 62% leased as of July 2012, essentially the same as last review.
The remaining four specially serviced properties are secured by a mix of property types. The master servicer has recognized an aggregate $77.7 million appraisal reduction for all five of the specially serviced loans. Moody's estimates an aggregate $82 million loss for the specially serviced loans (61% expected loss on average).
Moody's has assumed a high default probability for ten poorly performing loans representing 5% of the pool and has estimated an aggregate $11.2 million loss (17% expected loss based on a 50% probability default) from these troubled loans.
Moody's was provided with full year 2011 operating results for 98% of the pool. Excluding special serviced and troubled loans, Moody's weighted average LTV is 85%, essentially the same as at Moody's prior review. Moody's net cash flow reflects a weighted average haircut of 11% to the most recently available net operating income. Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.0%.
Excluding special serviced and troubled loans, Moody's actual and stressed DSCRs are 1.37X and 1.27X, respectively, compared to 1.38X and 1.26X at last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.
The top three performing conduit loans represent 8.6% of the pool balance. The largest loan is the Walden Pond at East Moriches Loan ($34.6 million -- 2.9% of the pool), which is secured by a 324-unit multifamily property located in East Moriches, New York. The property was 97% leased as of May 2012, compared to 98% at last review. Performance has improved since last review due to an increase in base rents at the property. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 101% and 0.91X, respectively, compared to 109% and 0.85X at last review.
The second largest loan is the Sherman Tower Center Loan ($34.1 million -- 2.9% of the pool), which is secured by a 285,000 SF shadow-anchored retail shopping center located in Sherman, Texas. The center is part of a larger 678,000 SF retail center. The collateral is shadow-anchored by Target, Home Depot and Wal-Mart. The property was 100% leased as of March 2012, the same as at last review. Performance has improved due to an increase in effective gross income and decrease in operating expenses. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 89% and 1.10X, respectively, compared to 93% and 1.05X at last review.
The third largest loan is the Fountain Square Loan ($33.2 million -- 2.8% of the pool), which is secured by three office buildings representing 242,000 SF located in Boca Raton, Florida. As of June 2012, the subject was 66% leased, compared to 74% at last review and 80% in 2010. The decline in property performance is mainly due to the loss of three tenants (12.4% of the NRA) in 2011. In addition, 25% of the NRA is set to expire in 2013 and an additional 18% in 2014. Due to the decline in property performance and the upcoming tenant rollover, Moody's is concerned about the loan's ability to refinance at the maturity date in November 2014 and views this loan as a troubled loan. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR is 137% and 0.71X, respectively, compared to 145% and 0.67X at last review.
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
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Brad Kamedulski Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Michael Gerdes MD - Structured Finance Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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Analysen zu Home Depot Inc., The
|22.05.2013||Home Depot kaufen||Jefferies & Company Inc.|
|15.11.2012||Home Depot neutral||Nomura|
|15.11.2012||Home Depot buy||UBS AG|
|15.11.2012||Home Depot hold||Deutsche Bank Securities|
|14.11.2012||Home Depot buy||Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.|
|22.05.2013||Home Depot kaufen||Jefferies & Company Inc.|
|15.11.2012||Home Depot buy||UBS AG|
|14.11.2012||Home Depot buy||Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.|
|14.11.2012||Home Depot outperform||Credit Suisse Group|
|09.10.2012||Home Depot overweight||Piper Jaffray & Co.|
|15.11.2012||Home Depot neutral||Nomura|
|15.11.2012||Home Depot hold||Deutsche Bank Securities|
|14.11.2012||Home Depot neutral||Sarasin Research|
|12.11.2012||Home Depot hold||Jefferies & Company Inc.|
|11.10.2012||Home Depot perform||Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.|
|19.03.2008||Home Depot Downgrade||Morgan Keegan & Co., Inc.|
|18.07.2007||Home Depot reduce||UBS|
|11.07.2007||Home Depot fern halten||Frankfurter Tagesdienst|
|21.05.2007||Home Depot reduce||UBS|
|18.05.2007||Home Depot meiden||Frankfurter Tagesdienst|
Alle: Alle Empfehlungen
Buy: Kaufempfehlungen wie z.B. "kaufen" oder "buy"
Hold: Halten-Empfehlungen wie z.B. "halten" oder "neutral"
Sell: Verkaufsempfehlungn wie z.B. "verkaufen" oder "reduce"
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