New York, November 16, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) downgraded the ratings of nine classes and affirmed 13 classes of Banc of America Commercial Mortgage Inc., Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2007-1 as follows:
Cl. A-3, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 8, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-AB, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 8, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-4, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 8, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-1A, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Mar 8, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-MFX, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. A-MFL, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. A-J, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 B2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. B, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 B3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. C, Downgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. D, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. E, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. F, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. G, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. H, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. J, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. K, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. L, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. M, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. N, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. O, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. P, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. XW, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Aug 23, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
On August 23, 2012 Moody's placed six classes on review for possible downgrade in order to further evaluate the ongoing risk of future interest shortfalls and the timing and severity of losses from the two largest specially serviced loans in the pool -- the Skyline Portfolio Loan and the Solana Loan. While there is still a significant amount of uncertainty concerning the two loans at this point in time is does not look like the expected resolution strategy will lead to a large spike in recurring interest shortfalls. This action concludes our review.
The downgrades of the principal classes are due to higher expected losses from specially serviced and troubled loans. The rating of the IO Class, Class XW, was downgraded to align with the expected credit performance of its referenced classes.
The affirmations are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the Herfindahl Index (Herf), remaining within acceptable ranges. Based on our current base expected loss, the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient to maintain their current ratings.
Moody's rating action reflects a base expected loss of 15.6% of the current balance. At last full review, Moody's cumulative base expected loss was 13.9%. Moody's provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255. Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels. If future performance materially declines, the expected level of credit enhancement and the priority in the cash flow waterfall may be insufficient for the current ratings of these classes.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with eight straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Slow recovery in the office sector continues with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending resulting in increased sales. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario maintains its forecast of relatively robust growth in the US and an expectation of a mild recession in the euro area for 2012. Downside risks remain significant, and elevated downside risks and their materialization could pose a serious threat to the outlook. Major downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets; an oil supply shock; and material fiscal tightening in the US given recent political gridlock. Healthy but below-trend growth in GDP is expected through the rest of this year and next with risks trending to the downside.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating U.S. CMBS Conduit Transactions" published in September 2000, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the Excel-based CMBS Conduit Model v 2.61 which is used for both conduit and fusion transactions. Conduit model results at the Aa2 (sf) level are driven by property type, Moody's actual and stressed DSCR, and Moody's property quality grade (which reflects the capitalization rate used by Moody's to estimate Moody's value). Conduit model results at the B2 (sf) level are driven by a paydown analysis based on the individual loan level Moody's LTV ratio. Moody's Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure of loan level diversity, is a primary determinant of pool level diversity and has a greater impact on senior certificates. Other concentrations and correlations may be considered in our analysis. Based on the model pooled credit enhancement levels at Aa2 (sf) and B2 (sf), the remaining conduit classes are either interpolated between these two data points or determined based on a multiple or ratio of either of these two data points. For fusion deals, the credit enhancement for loans with investment-grade credit assessments is melded with the conduit model credit enhancement into an overall model result. Fusion loan credit enhancement is based on the credit assessment of the loan which corresponds to a range of credit enhancement levels. Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are selected based on loan level diversity, pool leverage and other concentrations and correlations within the pool. Negative pooling, or adding credit enhancement at the credit assessment level, is incorporated for loans with similar credit assessments in the same transaction.
Moody's review also incorporated the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit estimates; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type corresponding to an IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point . For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator ver1.0 would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.
Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 24 compared to 27 at Moody's prior full review.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and a proprietary program that highlights significant credit changes that have occurred in the last month as well as cumulative changes since the last full transaction review. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior transaction review is summarized in a press release dated July 12, 2012. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
As of the October 15, 2012 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 8% to $2.58 billion from $3.15 billion at securitization. The Certificates are collateralized by 142 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 11% of the pool, with the top ten loans representing 44% of the pool.
Thirty-nine loans, representing 32% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans which meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of our ongoing monitoring of a transaction, Moody's reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could impact performance.
Thirteen loans have been liquidated from the pool since securitization, resulting in an aggregate $35.4 million loss (67% loss severity on average). Currently 13 loans, representing 24% of the pool, are in special servicing. The largest specially serviced loan is the Skyline Portfolio Loan ($271 million -- 10.5% of the pool), which represents a 40% pari passu interest in a $678 million first mortgage loan with the other pieces securitized in GECMC 2007-C1 and JPMCC 2007-LDP10. The loan is secured by eight cross-collateralized and cross-defaulted office properties totaling 2.6 million square feet (SF) which are located outside of Washington, DC in Falls Church, Virginia. At securitization, over 55% of the net rentable area (NRA) was leased by the General Services Administration (GSA). The GSA has been vacating its space as leases expire. The portfolio is 62% leased as of November 2012. The portfolio was appraised at $296.6 million as of July 2012 compared to $872 million at securitization. The special servicer is in discussions with the borrower regarding a possible loan modification. The loan sponsor is Vornado Realty Trust (Senior Unsecured Rating Baa2, Stable Outlook). The servicer has recognized a $168 million appraisal reduction for this loan.
The second largest specially serviced loan is the Solana Loan ($220 million --8.5% of the pool), which represents a 61% pari passu interest in a $360 million first mortgage loan. The loan is secured by a 1.9 million SF mixed use complex consisting of office, retail and a 198-room full service hotel located in Westlake, Texas. The non-hotel component is 67% leased, down from 84% in December 2011 as a result of the lease expiration and departure of a major tenant (Sabre, 20% of NRA). Loan modification discussions commenced, but there is no firm modification proposal being discussed at this time. The servicer is dual tracking foreclosure and a modification. A receiver was appointed in November 2011 and 133,000 SF of new leases and renewals have been executed since then. The servicer has recognized a $109 million appraisal reduction for this loan.
The master servicer has recognized an aggregate $429.1 million appraisal reduction for the specially serviced loans. Moody's has estimated an aggregate loss of $291.9 million (48% expected loss on average) for all of the specially serviced loans.
Moody's has assumed a high default probability for 29 poorly performing loans representing 12% of the pool and has estimated a $63.6 million loss (23% expected loss based on a 50% probability default) from these troubled loans.
Moody's was provided with full year 2011 operating results for 100% of the performing pool. Excluding specially serviced and troubled loans, Moody's weighted average LTV is 104% compared to 110% at last full review. Moody's net cash flow reflects a weighted average haircut of 12% to the most recently available net operating income. Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 8.8%.
Excluding specially serviced and troubled loans, Moody's actual and stressed DSCRs are 1.30X and 0.95X, respectively, compared to 1.23X and 0.90X at last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.
The top three loans represent 20% of the pool. The largest loan is the StratReal Industrial Portfolio I Loan ($190.0 million -- 7.4% of the pool), which is secured by a portfolio of 12 industrial properties, totaling 5.5 million SF, located in Ohio (8), Tennessee (3) and California (1). Occupancy as of October 2012 was 73%, down from 77% at last review. Ford Motor Co. which occupies 14% of the GLA renewed its lease which expired in March 2012 through May 2018. The loan has been on the watchlist since May 2011 due to significant lease rollover. However, many tenants have renewed their leases. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 124% and 0.76X, respectively, same as at last review.
The second largest loan is the Hirschfield Portfolio Loan ($167.0 million -- 6.5% of the pool), which is secured by four multifamily properties, totaling 1,841 units, located in three submarkets in the Baltimore metropolitan area. Performance has been stable to slightly improving since 2009. Occupancy as of year-end 2011 was 93%. The loan has paid off in full as of October 26, 2012.
The third largest loan consists of the cross collateralized and cross-defaulted Inland -- Bradley Portfolio Pool A & B Loans (total $156.6 million --6.1% of the pool), which was originally secured by 26 office, industrial, and retail properties located across 13 states. One property with an original allocated balance of $25.6 million has been released. Largest tenants include Pearson Education (1.1MM SF, 10/2016 expiration), Dopaco Inc. (299,000 SF, 12/2015 expiration), and Lamos Metal (224,000 SF, 1/2022 expiration). Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 93% and 0.99X, respectively, same as at last review.
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
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Moody's received and took into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction and the assessment had a neutral impact on the rating.
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Caroline Chan Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Sandra Ruffin VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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Analysen zu Ford Motor Co.
|30.09.2014||Ford Motor Buy||Deutsche Bank AG|
|30.09.2014||Ford Motor Buy||UBS AG|
|30.09.2014||Ford Motor Sector Perform||RBC Capital Markets|
|13.12.2013||Ford Motor halten||Deutsche Bank AG|
|26.06.2013||Ford Motor kaufen||Morgan Stanley|
|30.09.2014||Ford Motor Buy||Deutsche Bank AG|
|30.09.2014||Ford Motor Buy||UBS AG|
|26.06.2013||Ford Motor kaufen||Morgan Stanley|
|02.11.2012||Ford Motor outperform||RBC Capital Markets|
|02.11.2012||Ford Motor overweight||Morgan Stanley|
|30.09.2014||Ford Motor Sector Perform||RBC Capital Markets|
|13.12.2013||Ford Motor halten||Deutsche Bank AG|
|02.07.2012||Ford Motor neutral||Credit Suisse Group|
|28.06.2012||Ford Motor hold||Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.|
|12.01.2012||Ford Motor neutral||Credit Suisse Group|
|08.06.2010||Ford Motor "underperform"||Credit Suisse Group|
|02.06.2010||Ford Motor "underperform"||Credit Suisse Group|
|31.05.2010||Ford Motor "sell"||Citigroup Corp.|
|28.04.2010||Ford Motor "underperform"||Credit Suisse Group|
|24.11.2009||Ford Motor neues Kursziel||Citigroup Corp.|
Alle: Alle Empfehlungen
Buy: Kaufempfehlungen wie z.B. "kaufen" oder "buy"
Hold: Halten-Empfehlungen wie z.B. "halten" oder "neutral"
Sell: Verkaufsempfehlungn wie z.B. "verkaufen" oder "reduce"
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