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15.11.2012 17:23

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Moody's assigns A3 to Yapi Kredi's SME-backed covered bonds

Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi zu myNews hinzufügen Was ist das?


Madrid, November 15, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today assigned a definitive A3 long-term rating to the covered bonds issued by Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi AS (long-term global local-currency rating of Baa2, negative; BFSR D+/ba1 stable), under its Turkish Lira equivalent of EUR 300 million SME-backed covered bond programme.

RATINGS RATIONALE

As with all covered bonds, Yapi Kredi's covered bonds benefit from (1) a promise from the issuer to pay interest and principal on the covered bonds; and (2) if Yapi Kredi defaults -- or certain triggers are hit -- the economic benefit from the cover pool. This would involve Yapi Kredi paying the covered bondholders using the proceeds obtained from the cash flows generated by the assets, or through the direct liquidation of the cover pool.

Turkish law provides two separate regulations, one for mortgage-backed covered bonds and the other for asset-backed covered bonds. For this programme, the Turkish asset-backed covered bonds legislation (the Turkish ACB Legislation) governs the covered bonds, whilst English and Turkish law govern the transaction documents.

The programme incorporates structural features that address several risks within the overall structure, providing a combination of typical covered bond and structured finance protection for investors.

The covered bond ratings take into account four principal factors:

(1) Yapi Kredi's credit strength (long-term global local-currency rating of Baa2, negative).

(2) The Turkish ACB Legislation, which provides protection for bondholders, such as:

---The ring-fencing of the cover pool assets and a stipulation that these assets must not form part of the issuer's bankruptcy estate.

---The segregation of transaction accounts and cash flows from the underlying cover pool.

---Any issuance of covered bonds must be authorised by the Capital Market Board (CMB), following the CMB's approval and registration of the issuer.

---An independent party, the security supervisor, monitors the cover pool on an ongoing basis. The supervisor reports directly to the CMB.

(3) The credit quality of the cover pool, which is reflected in the collateral score of 24%.

The cover pool comprises a granular portfolio of Turkish SME loans, with short-term maturities not exceeding 36 months. The stressed level of losses modelled in event of issuer default (cover pool losses) for this transaction is 26.6%.

(4) The transaction structural features that aim to mitigate various risks -- the features are:

---Early amortisation triggers, together with an extension maturity for the covered bonds, which aims to mitigate refinancing risk.

---A liquidity account that covers three months' interest and the appointment of a replacement servicer facilitator, which aims to mitigate any disruption risk following an issuer default.

---The over-collateralisation (OC) in the cover pool is 44.1%, of which 25% is provided on a "committed" basis, which aims to mitigate credit risk. The minimum OC level that is consistent with the A3 rating target is 0%. These numbers show that Moody's is not relying on "uncommitted" OC in its expected loss analysis.

Moody's has assigned a timely payment indicator (TPI) of "Probable" to this transaction. This TPI level is relatively high for covered bonds issued out of a country rated non-investment grade (Turkey, Ba1 positive). However, based on both the strength of the Turkish ACB Legislation and the structural mechanisms implemented, Moody's believes that refinancing and operational risks are well mitigated. This TPI does not constrain the rating of the covered bonds at its current level and the ratings are limited by the current local-currency ceiling of A3.

As is the case with other covered bonds, Moody's considers the transaction to be linked to Yapi Kredi's credit strength, particularly from a timeliness of payment perspective. If this credit strength deteriorates -- all other variables being equal -- the covered bond ratings may come under pressure.

Moody's ratings address only the credit risks associated with the transaction. Other non-credit risks have not been addressed, but may have a significant effect on yield to investors. The A3 rating assigned to the covered bonds is expected to be assigned to all subsequent covered bonds issued under this programme and any future rating actions are expected to affect all such covered bonds. If there are any exceptions to this, Moody's will in each case publish details in a separate press release.

KEY RATING ASSUMPTIONS/FACTORS

Covered bond ratings are determined after applying a two-step process: an expected loss analysis and a TPI framework analysis.

EXPECTED LOSS: Moody's determines a rating based on the expected loss on the bond. The primary model used is Moody's Covered Bond Model (COBOL), which determines expected loss as (1) a function of the issuer's probability of default (measured by the issuer's rating); and (2) the stressed losses on the cover pool assets following issuer default.

The cover pool losses for this programme are 26.6%. This is an estimate of the losses Moody's currently models if Yapi Kredi defaults. Cover pool losses can be split between market risk of 10.5% and collateral risk of 16.1%. Market risk measures losses as a result of refinancing risk and risks related to interest-rate and currency mismatches (these losses may also include certain legal risks). Collateral risk measures losses resulting directly from the credit quality of the assets in the cover pool. Collateral risk is derived from the collateral score, which for this programme is currently 24%.

The OC in the cover pool is 44.1%, of which 25% is provided on a "committed" basis. The minimum OC level that is consistent with the A3 rating target is 0%. Therefore, Moody's is not relying on "uncommitted" OC in its expected loss analysis.

All numbers in this section are based on Moody's most recent modelling (based on data, as per June 2012)

TPI FRAMEWORK: Moody's assigns a "timely payment indicator" (TPI), which indicates the likelihood that timely payment will be made to covered bondholders following issuer default. The effect of the TPI framework is to limit the covered bond rating to a certain number of notches above the issuer's rating.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

The robustness of a covered bond rating largely depends on the issuer's credit strength. The TPI Leeway measures the number of notches by which the issuer's rating may be downgraded before the covered bonds are downgraded under the

TPI framework.

Based on the current TPI of Probable, the TPI Leeway for Yapi Kredi's SME covered bonds can be up to three notches, meaning the covered bonds might be downgraded as a result of a TPI cap if Yapi Kredi's rating is downgraded below Ba3, all other variables being equal.

A multiple-notch downgrade of the covered bonds might occur in certain limited circumstances, such as (1) a sovereign downgrade negatively affecting both the issuer's senior unsecured rating and the TPI; (2) a multiple-notch downgrade of the issuer; or (3) a material reduction of the value of the cover pool.

RATING METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating Covered Bonds" published in July 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following : parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Jose de Leon Senior Vice President Structured Finance Group Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A. Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta Madrid 28002 Spain JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Juan Pablo Soriano MD - Structured Finance Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A. Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta Madrid 28002 Spain JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY'S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED,DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY'S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY'S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Under no circumstances shall MOODY'S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error negligent or otherwise or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY'S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY'S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. Each user of the information contained herein must make its own study and evaluation of each security it may consider purchasing, holding or selling.

NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY'S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.

MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation ("MCO"), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations -- Corporate Governance -- Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."

Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY'S affiliate, Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657, which holds Australian Financial Services License no. 336969. This document is intended to be provided only to "wholesale clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY'S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a "wholesale client" and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to "retail clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody's Japan K.K. ("MJKK") are MJKK's current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt-like securities. In such a case, "MIS" in the foregoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with "MJKK". MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly owned by Moody's Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.

This credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness or a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be dangerous for retail investors to make any investment decision based on this credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.

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