New York, September 14, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has upgraded the ratings on four tranches and confirmed the rating on one tranche from two subprime RMBS transactions issued by J.P. Morgan. The collateral backing the transactions are subprime residential mortgages.
Complete rating actions are as follows:
Issuer: J.P. Morgan Mortgage Acquisition Corp. 2005-OPT2
Cl. A-4, Confirmed at A3 (sf); previously on May 30, 2012 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Cl. M-1, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on May 30, 2012 B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Cl. M-2, Upgraded to B2 (sf); previously on May 30, 2012 Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Cl. M-3, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on May 30, 2012 C (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Issuer: J.P. Morgan Mortgage Acquisition Corp. 2005-WMC1
Cl. M-1, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on May 30, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
The actions are a result of the recent performance of Subprime pools originated after 2005 and reflect Moody's updated loss expectations on these pools. The upgrades in today's rating action are a result of improving performance and/or structural features resulting in lower expected losses for certain bonds than previously anticipated.
The methodologies used in these ratings were "Moody's Approach to Rating US Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities" published in December 2008, and "2005 -- 2008 US RMBS Surveillance Methodology" published in July 2011. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's adjusts the methodologies noted above for Moody's current views on loan modifications. As a result of an extension of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to 2013 and an increased use of private modifications, Moody's is extending its previous view that loan modifications will only occur through the end of 2012. It is now assuming that the loan modifications will continue at current levels until the end of 2013.
To assess the rating implications of the updated loss levels on subprime RMBS, each individual pool was run through a variety of scenarios in the Structured Finance Workstation® (SFW), the cash flow model developed by Moody's Wall Street Analytics. This individual pool level analysis incorporates performance variances across the different pools and the structural features of the transaction including priorities of payment distribution among the different tranches, average life of the tranches, current balances of the tranches and future cash flows under expected and stressed scenarios. The scenarios include ninety-six different combinations comprising of six loss levels, four loss timing curves and four prepayment curves. The volatility in losses experienced by a tranche due to extended foreclosure timelines by servicers is taken into consideration when assigning ratings.
The above methodology only applies to pools with at least 40 loans and a pool factor of greater than 5%. Moody's may withdraw its rating when the pool factor drops below 5% and the number of loans in the pool declines to 40 loans or lower unless specific structural features allow for a monitoring of the transaction (such as a credit enhancement floor).
The primary sources of assumption uncertainty are our central macroeconomic forecast and performance volatility as a result of servicer-related activity such as modifications. The unemployment rate fell from 9.1% in June 2011 to 8.2% in June 2012. Moody's forecasts a further drop to 7.8% by the end of 2Q 2013. Moody's expects housing prices to remain stable through the remainder of 2012 before gradually rising towards the end of 2013. Performance of RMBS continues to remain highly dependent on servicer activity such as modification-related principal forgiveness and interest rate reductions. Any change resulting from servicing transfers or other policy or regulatory change can also impact the performance of these transactions .
A list of these actions including CUSIP identifiers may be found at:
A list of updated estimated pool losses, sensitivity analysis, and tranche recovery details is being posted on an ongoing basis for the duration of this review period and may be found at:
For more information please see www.moodys.com.
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's received and took into account one or more third party assessments on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in these transactions and the assessments had a neutral impact on the rating.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Edward Hou Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Amita Shrivastava VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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