"China's still-positive, albeit declining, purchasing managers' index (PMI), combined with the country's slowing economic growth and reduced demand from Europe, suggests that growth in regional demand for steel will decrease to an average rate of 4%-5% year-on-year for 2012, from more than 8% in 2011," says Jiming Zou, a Moody's Analyst.
"On the other hand, lower input costs over the last few months and an expected mild recovery in demand in the next 12 months will lead to a modest improvement in steelmakers' profits, as measured by EBITDA per tonne," he adds.
Zou was speaking at the release of a new Moody's report titled, "Asia Steel Industry Outlook: Slow Growth but Modest Improvement in Profit Ahead after Recent Trough."
According to the report, the profitability of Asian steelmakers will remain low by historical standards, given the oversupply in the industry, China's moderating rate of growth, and still elevated input costs.
While the prices for iron ore and coking coal have fallen since end-2011 as a result of the slowdown in the global economy and steel demand, they will remain elevated relative to their historical levels because of tightness in supply.
"Also, China's supply glut and increased exports will cap price hikes elsewhere and prohibit a swift and sustained recovery in profitability to historical levels," Zou says.
Among Moody's-rated Asian steelmakers, the profitability of Tata Steel (Ba3 stable) is most vulnerable to a greater-than-expected downturn in Europe, while China Oriental (Ba2 stable) and Baosteel (A3 stable) will be most affected by a further slowdown in China.
For Korea, Moody's expects growth in steel consumption to slow to low-single-digits in 2012 from 7.6% a year earlier, as machinery and equipment demand from China and demand for ship plates will be sluggish. However, a rebound in long-steel demand -- as well as the recovery in housing supply and strong automobile exports -- will mitigate this negative impact.
Japan's steel demand will be steady this year, despite the appreciation of the yen against the US dollar, because of the reconstruction after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
For India, growth in steel demand will also slow for all of 2012 as the country's GDP growth is likely to decrease.
Moody's industry outlooks reflect the rating agency's expectations for fundamental business conditions in the industry over the next 12 to 18 months.
Moody's tracks two key indicators in assigning the industry's regional outlook: China's manufacturing PMI and projected EBITDA per tonne of major steelmakers in Asia.
If the PMI falls below 52 for two or more consecutive months and projected EBITDA per tonne drops more than 15% year-on-year, the outlook could change to negative. A projected increase of at least 15% in EBITDA per tonne could prompt Moody's to change the outlook for the sector to positive.
Moody's research subscribers can access the report at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_143552.
NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London+44-20-7772-5456, New York+1-212-553-0376, Tokyo+813-5408-4110, Hong Kong+852-3758-1350, Sydney+61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires0800-666-3506. You can also email us at firstname.lastname@example.org or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.
Jiming Zou Analyst Corporate Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service Hong Kong Ltd. 24/F One Pacific Place 88 Queensway Hong Kong China (Hong Kong S.A.R.) JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350 SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077 Gary Lau MD - Corporate Finance Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350 SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd. 24/F One Pacific Place 88 Queensway Hong Kong China (Hong Kong S.A.R.) JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350 SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY'S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.
ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED,DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.
All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY'S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY'S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Under no circumstances shall MOODY'S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error negligent or otherwise or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY'S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY'S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. Each user of the information contained herein must make its own study and evaluation of each security it may consider purchasing, holding or selling.
NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY'S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.
MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation ("MCO"), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations -- Corporate Governance -- Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."
Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY'S affiliate, Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657, which holds Australian Financial Services License no. 336969. This document is intended to be provided only to "wholesale clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY'S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a "wholesale client" and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to "retail clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody's Japan K.K. ("MJKK") are MJKK's current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt-like securities. In such a case, "MIS" in the foregoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with "MJKK". MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly owned by Moody's Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.
This credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness or a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be dangerous for retail investors to make any investment decision based on this credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.
Nachrichten zu Tata Steel Ltd. (spons. GDR)
- vom Unternehmen
- Peer Group
Eventuell finden Sie Nachrichten, die älter als ein Jahr sind, im Archiv
Relevant: Nachrichten von ausgesuchten Quellen, die sich im Speziellen mit diesem Unternehmen befassen
Alle: Alle Nachrichten, die dieses Unternehmen betreffen. Z.B. auch Marktberichte die außerdem auch andere Unternehmen betreffen
vom Unternehmen: Nachrichten und Adhoc-Meldungen, die vom Unternehmen selbst veröffentlicht werden
Peer Group: Nachrichten von Unternehmen, die zur Peer Group gehören
Analysen zu Tata Steel Ltd. (spons. GDR)
Private Krankenversicherung Tarifvergleich
Mehr zur Tata Steel-Aktie
Heute im Fokus
Apple will Beats-Musik-App in iTunes aufgehen lassen. Deutsche Bank leidet unter Rückstellungen. S&P hebt Bonitätsnote von Zypern an. Ryanair-Chef unterschreibt für fünf weitere Jahre. FMC besorgt sich 900 Millionen US-Dollar am Bondmarkt. Chiquita lässt Fyffes-Fusion platzen. Cameron: Werden Milliarden-Rechnung aus Brüssel nicht bezahlen.
Diese Aktien sind auf den Kauflisten der Experten
So platzieren sich die Deutschen
Die öffentliche Verschwendung