Amgen Inc. (AMGN) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know

15.04.24 15:07 Uhr

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Amgen (AMGN) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.Over the past month, shares of this world's largest biotech drugmaker have returned -0.6%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.9% change. During this period, the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which Amgen falls in, has lost 7.8%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.For the current quarter, Amgen is expected to post earnings of $3.80 per share, indicating a change of -4.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.8% over the last 30 days.The consensus earnings estimate of $19.49 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +4.5%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $21.02 indicates a change of +7.9% from what Amgen is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Amgen.The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSRevenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.In the case of Amgen, the consensus sales estimate of $7.44 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +21.9%. The $32.87 billion and $34.04 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +16.6% and +3.6%, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryAmgen reported revenues of $8.2 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +19.8%. EPS of $4.71 for the same period compares with $4.09 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.11 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +1%. The EPS surprise was +1.07%.The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.Amgen is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Amgen. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.Zacks Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all.It’s an American AI company that’s riding low right now, but it has rounded up clients like BMW, GE, Dell Computer, and Bosch. It has prospects for not just doubling but quadrupling in the year to come. Of course, all our picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Boston Beer Company which shot up +143.0% in little more than 9 months and NVIDIA which boomed +175.9% in one year.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free reportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks

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Nachrichten zu Amgen Inc.

Analysen zu Amgen Inc.

DatumRatingAnalyst
28.04.2021Amgen buyGoldman Sachs Group Inc.
28.04.2021Amgen NeutralJP Morgan Chase & Co.
05.03.2021Amgen buyGoldman Sachs Group Inc.
05.03.2021Amgen NeutralJP Morgan Chase & Co.
23.12.2020Amgen Sector PerformRBC Capital Markets
DatumRatingAnalyst
28.04.2021Amgen buyGoldman Sachs Group Inc.
05.03.2021Amgen buyGoldman Sachs Group Inc.
15.03.2019Amgen OutperformBMO Capital Markets
17.01.2019Amgen buyGoldman Sachs Group Inc.
08.12.2018Amgen buyGoldman Sachs Group Inc.
DatumRatingAnalyst
28.04.2021Amgen NeutralJP Morgan Chase & Co.
05.03.2021Amgen NeutralJP Morgan Chase & Co.
23.12.2020Amgen Sector PerformRBC Capital Markets
29.07.2020Amgen NeutralJP Morgan Chase & Co.
25.01.2020Amgen NeutralJP Morgan Chase & Co.
DatumRatingAnalyst
15.11.2012Amgen verkaufenHamburger Sparkasse AG (Haspa)
31.07.2012Amgen verkaufenHamburger Sparkasse AG (Haspa)
01.02.2012Amgen verkaufenHamburger Sparkasse AG (Haspa)
20.12.2011Amgen verkaufenHamburger Sparkasse AG (Haspa)
30.07.2008Amgen UpgradeIndependent Research GmbH

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