ASML Holding Before Q1 Earnings: How Should Investors Play the Stock?

ASML Holding ASML is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on April 15, 2026.ASML expects revenues between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $10.21 billion, indicating a 25.4% increase from the year-ago quarter’s level.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $7.72 per share, suggesting an increase of 22.4% from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of $6.31. The estimate has been revised upward by 8 cents over the past seven days.The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the trailing four quarters while missing on two occasions, the average negative surprise being 5.87%.ASML Holding N.V. Price and EPS Surprise ASML Holding N.V. price-eps-surprise | ASML Holding N.V. QuoteEarnings Whispers for ASML StockOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for ASML Holding this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate ($7.83 per share) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate ($7.72 per share), is +1.39%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: ASML carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Factors Likely to Influence ASML’s Q1 ResultsASML is likely to gain from the rising demand for its lithography tools gaining traction on the back of the need for producing more complex logic, DRAM, HBM and NAND chips. This tailwind is likely to reflect in ASML’s first-quarter 2026 results. ASML’s EUV technology is gaining the highest traction among DRAM, followed by HBM and DDR.Shift toward High NA-EUV technology, strong usage of ASML’s DUV technology in China and EUV in the rest of the world is likely to have driven the company’s top line in the to-be-reported quarter. As AI and high performance computing processes like training and inference require better HBM and DRAM chips, ASML’s advanced etching tools will remain in demand.The growing popularity of ASML’s NXE:3800 low numerical aperture (NA) machine, which can process 220 wafers per hour, is likely to have driven substantial EUV sales in the to-be-reported quarter. The industry’s shift from 4nm to 2nm nodes has led to single-exposure EUV technology gaining popularity. EUV is likely to have gained traction in the to-be-reported quarter.ASML’s upgrade and service business has been a strong contributor to its Installed Base Management segment throughout the past year. In 2025, ASML’s IBM sales increased 26% to EUR 8.2 billion, driven by higher service and upgrades of its wafer fabrication equipment business, which is likely to have persisted in the first quarter of 2026.ASML’s Price Performance, Valuation and EstimatesShares of ASML have gained 118.2% in the past 12 months compared with the Computer and Technology sector’s growth of 44.5%.ASML One-Year Performance ChartImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFrom a valuation standpoint, ASML trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 12.57X, higher than the sector’s average of 6.06X.ASML Forward 12-Month (P/S) Valuation ChartImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchInvestment Thesis for ASMLASML holds a near-monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology crucial for the world’s most advanced chips at 3nm and below, and it benefits from extraordinary pricing power and strategic importance. Major customers like TSMC, Samsung and Intel rely on ASML’s systems to stay ahead in chip innovation.ASML is effectively the sole player in lithography system upgrades for its own installed base, especially in EUV space. However, in the broader semiconductor equipment market, ASML competes with companies like Lam Research LRCX, KLA Corporation KLAC and Applied Materials AMAT. Lam Research is an established wafer fabrication equipment manufacturer that is established in the memory space.Applied Materials supplies equipment used in chip fabrication, including deposition and etching tools that are essential for both advanced and mature nodes. KLAC’s advanced packaging solutions are also experiencing robust traction on the back of AI and high performance computing. However, in the lithography space, especially in EUV space, ASML is the undisputed leader.ASML’s venture into sub-2nm production with High Numerical Aperture (High-NA) EUV systems is the next technological leap for chipmakers. This technology will provide ASML with long-term potential as the industry moves toward denser and more efficient chips. ASML’s High-NA machines will be central to that shift.These factors will let ASML stay ahead of Lam Research, Applied Materials and KLA Corporation. The company’s impressive backlog of €38.8 billion will provide it with strong visibility in the revenue pipeline. Together, these factors, along with the near monopoly in advanced lithography, will enable it to protect its margins. The Zacks Consensus Estimates for ASML’s 2026 earnings have been revised upward in the past seven days.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchConclusion: Buy ASML Stock NowASML is expected to enter the first quarter of 2026 with strong revenue and earnings growth expectations, supported by robust demand for EUV and DUV tools, AI-driven chip complexity and a solid backlog. The strong fundamentals will help it beat the earnings this quarter. Given these factors, we suggest that investors should retain ASML stock now.Quantum Computing Stocks Set To SoarArtificial intelligence has already reshaped the investment landscape, and its convergence with quantum computing could lead to the most significant wealth-building opportunities of our time.Today, you have a chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this technological revolution. In our urgent special report, Beyond AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Power, you'll discover the little-known stocks we believe will win the quantum computing race and deliver massive gains to early investors.Access the Report Free Now >>This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks