Carrier Global (CARR) Down 10.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Carrier Global (CARR). Shares have lost about 10.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Carrier Global due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Carrier Global Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.Carrier Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Down Y/YCarrier Global reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 67 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 21.82%. However, it has declined 19.3% year over year.Net sales of $5.58 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.93% but decreased 6.8% year over year. Product sales (87.9% of net sales) of $4.90 billion decreased 7.6% year over year. Service sales (12.1% of net sales) of $673 million were down 0.6% year over year.CARR’s Quarter in DetailClimate Solutions Americas (CSA) revenues of $2.71 billion contributed 48.6% to net sales and declined 8.4% year over year. Sales decreased 8% organically. Commercial showed strong growth of 30%. However, this was more than offset by lower volumes in Residential, which fell about 30%, and in Light Commercial, which decreased 4%.CARR’s Quarter in DetailClimate Solutions Europe revenues of $1.29 billion contributed 23.1% to net sales and increased 3.5% year over year. Organic sales declined 3%, with Residential and Light Commercial down low-single digits and Commercial down mid-single digits. Climate Solutions Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa revenues of $833 million contributed 14.9% to net sales and declined 1% year over year. Sales decreased 2% organically due to declines in Residential Light Commercial in China, partially offset by continued strong growth in India and the Middle East.Climate Solutions Transportation revenues of $745 million contributed 13.4% to net sales and decreased 20.5% year over year. The decline can be attributed to the impact of the divestiture of Commercial Refrigeration. Sales increased 6% organically, with 50% growth in Container, partially offset by a decline in Global Truck and Trailer, which was down in the mid-single digits.Research & development (R&D) expenses decreased 12.2% year over year to $151 million. As a percentage of revenues, R&D expenses declined 20 basis points (bps) year over year.Selling, general & administrative (SG&A) expenses increased 0.5% year over year to $803 million. As a percentage of revenues, SG&A expenses expanded 100 bps year over year.Adjusted operating margin contracted 260 bps on a year-over-year basis to 14.8%.Adjusted operating margin in the Climate Solutions Americas segment contracted 560 bps year over year to 19.7%. The Climate Solutions Europe segment contracted 110 bps year over year to 9.3%. Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa segment contracted 100 bps year over year to 11.6%. Climate Solutions Transportation segment expanded 80 bps year over year to 15.4%.CARR’s Balance SheetAs of Sept. 30, 2025, Carrier had cash and cash equivalents of $1.42 billion compared with $1.8 billion as of June 30, 2025.Total debt (including the current portion) as of Sept. 30, 2025, was $11.91 billion compared with $11.44 billion as of June 30, 2025.The company generated $341 million in cash from operations compared with $649 million in the previous quarter.Free cash flow was $224 million compared with $568 million reported in the prior quarter.In the third quarter of 2025, CARR repurchased $2.4 billion of its shares and paid $3 billion to shareholders.In the reported quarter, CARR’s board of directors approved a $5 billion share repurchase authorization.Carrier Offers Weak 2025 OutlookFor 2025, Carrier expects to achieve sales of $22 billion, reflecting flat organic growth.Adjusted operating margin is expected to be between 15% and 15.5%, down 50 bps from 2024. The company anticipates adjusted earnings of $2.65 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 4%.Free cash flow is expected to be $2 billion.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.The consensus estimate has shifted -22.09% due to these changes.VGM ScoresCurrently, Carrier Global has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Carrier Global has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Quantum Computing Stocks Set To SoarArtificial intelligence has already reshaped the investment landscape, and its convergence with quantum computing could lead to the most significant wealth-building opportunities of our time.Today, you have a chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this technological revolution. 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