Why Is Match Group (MTCH) Up 1.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Match Group (MTCH). Shares have added about 1.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Match Group due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.Match Group Q3 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates, Both Increased Y/YMatch Group reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of 82 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.89%. The bottom line jumped 60.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.Revenues of $914.3 million, up 2.1% year over year, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.08%. On an FX-neutral basis, revenues increased 1% from the prior-year quarter to $895.5 million.Direct revenues were $896.6 million, up 2% year over year, while indirect revenues increased to $17.6 million, an 8% rise from the year-ago quarter, driven primarily by the strength in third-party advertising business.Top-line growth was driven by strength in Hinge. Hinge Direct revenues increased 27% year over year.MTCH’s Quarterly DetailsIn the third quarter, the total number of payers decreased by 4.5% year over year to 14.5 million. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.78%.Total revenues per payer (RPP) increased 6.9% year over year to $20.58. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.75%.Direct revenues from Tinder were down 2.5% year over year (down 4% on an FX-neutral basis) to $490.6 million. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.57%.Tinder RPP rose 4.7% year over year to $17.66, and Payers declined 6.9% year over year to 9.3 million.Hinge revenues grew 27% year over year to $184.7 million (up 26% on an FX-neutral basis), with a 17% year-over-year increase in payers to 1.9 million and a 9% increase in RPP to $32.87.Match Group Asia (MG Asia) direct revenues declined 4.3% year over year (down 4% on an FX-neutral basis) to $69.1 million. MG Asia encompasses the worldwide activities of the brands Pairs and Azar. Across MG Asia, Payers increased 6.3% year over year to 1.1 million, while RPP declined 10% to $20.73, partly reflecting the impact of Hakuna’s exit in mid-2024.Evergreen and Emerging revenues declined 3.9% year over year (down 5% on an FX-neutral basis) to $152.2 million. This reflected a 13% drop in payers to 2.3 million, despite a 10.3% gain in RPP to $22.22.Match Group’s Operating DetailsTotal operating costs and expenses (75.8% of revenues) increased 1.2% year over year to $692.9 million in the third quarter.Adjusted EBITDA was $301.4 million, down 12% year over year, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33%, which contracted 530 basis points.MTCH’s Balance SheetAs of Sept. 30, 2025, Match Group had cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.1 billion compared with $340.4 million as of June 30, 2025.The company reported long-term debt of $4.1 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025, up from $3.5 billion reported as of June 30, 2025.In the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025, Match Group repurchased 3.7 million shares of common stock for $130 million.In October, the company repurchased an additional 3 million shares of our common stock for $100 million. As of Oct. 31, 2025, $1.10 billion in aggregate value of shares of Match Group stock was available under the current share repurchase program.MTCH’s Q4 & 2025 GuidanceMatch Group expects fourth-quarter 2025 revenues of $865-$875 million, suggesting 1-2% year-over-year growth. This range assumes a nearly 2.5-point year-over-year tailwind from FX.Adjusted EBITDA of $350 to $355 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 9% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 41% at the midpoint of the ranges.For 2025, the company expects free cash flow guidance to be $1.11 to $1.14 billion. Tax rate guidance is expected to be in the high teens.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.VGM ScoresAt this time, Match Group has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Match Group has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Zacks' Research Chief Picks Stock Most Likely to "At Least Double"Our experts have revealed their Top 5 recommendations with money-doubling potential – and Director of Research Sheraz Mian believes one is superior to the others. Of course, all our picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier recommendations like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.See Our Top Stock to Double (Plus 4 Runners Up) >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Match Group Inc. (MTCH): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks