Alberta's economy: Finding a footing in turbulent times

ATB Financial Quarterly Economic Outlook

EDMONTON, AB, June 26, 2025 /CNW/ - ATB Financial's latest economic outlook shows a modest upgrade to the province's growth forecast, even as global trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions remain key sources of uncertainty. The report notes some de-escalation in trade tensions since the early spring, which offers a cautious improvement to the economic picture.

While the broader trade landscape remains challenging, Alberta's economy continues to show a degree of resilience, underpinned by activity in residential construction, steady energy production, and sustained population growth. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. That's an upgrade from 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively, in March. 

"Alberta's economy is feeling the effects of the trade war, and the outlook for oil prices has softened. However, we expect that Alberta's economy will continue to weather the turmoil better than other provinces more exposed to U.S. tariffs," says ATB Financial's Chief Economist, Mark Parsons. "While population-driven demand and energy exports provide some foundational support, the unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated as employers remain cautious on hiring and more people enter the workforce."

ATB Economics forecasts that the Alberta economy will outpace the expected Canadian growth of 1.0 per cent this year. Alberta's higher growth will be driven by home construction and energy production supported by the Trans Mountain Expansion. Natural gas producers will benefit from the start of LNG Canada and increased demand from AI data centres. A broadening of Alberta's economic base, with recent expansions in sectors such as food processing, petrochemicals, and technology, supports the longer term outlook.

"While U.S. trade policy has been highly disruptive, it has also shone a spotlight on Canada's domestic challenges that long pre-dated President Trump's second term. In particular, there will need to be a sustained improvement in private capital investment in Alberta and Canada to drive future economic growth and productivity. Successfully fast-tracking major projects represents a clear upside to our forecast." added Parsons.

While the path forward is not without its challenges, solid fundamentals support Alberta's medium term outlook, namely, abundant natural resources, a skilled and young workforce, and relatively affordable housing. 

About ATB Financial
With $64.2 billion in assets, ATB Financial is a leading financial institution that started in Alberta with the focus of putting people first. Our success comes from our more than 5,000 team members who love to deliver exceptional experiences to over 835,000 clients across our Personal and Business Banking, ATB Wealth Management and ATB Capital Markets businesses. ATB provides expert advice, services and products through our many branches and agencies, our 24-hour Client Care Centre, four entrepreneur centres and our digital banking options. ATB powers possibilities for our clients, communities and beyond. ATB is bronze certified as part of the Partnership Accreditation in Indigenous Relations commissioned by the Canadian Council for Indigenous Business. More information about ATB can be found at atb.com.

General Disclosure
ATB Financial's Economic Outlook is intended for general information and educational purposes only and should not be considered specific legal, financial, tax or other professional advice or recommendations. Information presented is believed to be reliable and up-to-date but it is not guaranteed to be accurate or a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgement of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. The actual outcome may be materially different. ATB Financial and any of its affiliates are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by ATB Financial or any of its affiliates and related entities.

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SOURCE ATB Financial