Cox Automotive Forecast: New-Vehicle Sales in June Slow from Accelerated Spring Pace; Second Quarter Sales to Finish Higher Year Over Year, As Large Automakers Gain Share
- The new-vehicle sales pace in June is expected to finish near 15.3 million, up from last June's 15.0 million pace, but down from last month's 15.6 million level.
- Sales volume in June is forecast to finish down 6.3% from last year, lower by 15.2% from last month.
- Thanks in part to strong results in April and May, second-quarter new-vehicle sales will finish nearly 2% higher year over year, as the market slows after the spring surge.
ATLANTA, June 25, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- June new-vehicle sales, when announced next week, are expected to show a market slowing from the spring tariff-induced sales surge. The SAAR, or seasonally adjusted annual rate, is expected to fall to a pace of 15.3 million, down from May's 15.6 million level and significantly behind March and April's 17.5 million average sales pace. Second-quarter new-vehicle sales in the U.S. are forecast to be higher year over year by 1.7%, thanks to healthy results early in the quarter.
New-vehicle sales volume in June, the final month of Q2, is expected to decline more than 6% from last year and 15% from last month. However, June has only 24 selling days, two fewer than last year and three fewer than last month, so lower sales volumes are anticipated.
June 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Sales Forecast1 | Market Share | ||||||||
Segment | Jun-25 | May-25 | Jun-24 | MOM% | YOY% | Jun-25 | May-25 | MOM | |
Mid-Size Car | 60,000 | 72,460 | 71,890 | -17.2 % | -16.5 % | 4.8 % | 4.9 % | -0.1 % | |
Compact Car | 95,000 | 109,957 | 98,590 | -13.6 % | -3.6 % | 7.6 % | 7.5 % | 0.1 % | |
Compact SUV/Crossover | 210,000 | 246,312 | 216,143 | -14.7 % | -2.8 % | 16.8 % | 16.7 % | 0.1 % | |
Full-Size Pickup Truck | 180,000 | 215,511 | 189,070 | -16.5 % | -4.8 % | 14.4 % | 14.6 % | -0.2 % | |
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover | 205,000 | 240,405 | 211,083 | -14.7 % | -2.9 % | 16.4 % | 16.3 % | 0.1 % | |
Other Segments | 500,000 | 589,165 | 547,032 | -15.1 % | -8.6 % | 40.0 % | 40.0 % | 0.0 % | |
Grand Total | 1,250,000 | 1,473,810 | 1,333,808 | -15.2 % | -6.3 % | ||||
1Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
"The sales forecast is showing a cooler market in June, as consumers face tighter inventory levels and reluctance on the part of most dealers to add big discounts," noted Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "Much of the pull-ahead demand that fired up sales in April and May has now been satiated, so consumer demand is expected to be weaker in the coming months. Buyers are price-sensitive right now. As more tariffed products replace existing inventory over the summer, prices are expected to trend higher, leading to slower sales in the coming months."
Q2 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Cox Automotive is forecasting Q2 2025 new-vehicle sales to climb year over year by 1.7%, as a result of a strong market in April and the first part of May. With sales volume forecast at 4.18 million, Q2 sales will also finish higher than Q1, when 3.92 million units were sold. However, with more selling days in Q2, the Q2 SAAR of 16.1 million is below the Q1 SAAR of 16.4 million, another sign of a slowing new-vehicle market. Sales in the first half of 2025 are forecast to finish above year-ago levels.
With stronger-than-expected sales in the early part of Q2 now in the books, Cox Automotive is increasing its baseline forecast to 15.7 million, a slight increase from the forecast of 15.6 million established at the end of Q1. The new, full-year sales forecast of 15.7 million represents a slight decline from full-year results in 2024 and is down from Cox Automotive's initial 2025 forecast of 16.3 million.
Q2 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Q2 Sales Forecast1 | H1 Sales Forecast | Market Share | |||||||
OEM | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2024 | QOQ % | YOY% | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | % Change | H12025 |
GM | 746,548 | 690,339 | 691,680 | 8.1 % | 7.9 % | 1,436,887 | 1,281,735 | 12.1 % | 17.7 % |
Toyota | 674,502 | 570,269 | 616,123 | 18.3 % | 9.5 % | 1,244,771 | 1,179,653 | 5.5 % | 15.3 % |
Ford | 610,422 | 498,480 | 532,466 | 22.5 % | 14.6 % | 1,108,902 | 1,037,281 | 6.9 % | 13.7 % |
Hyundai | 474,449 | 419,912 | 438,602 | 13.0 % | 8.2 % | 894,361 | 817,805 | 9.4 % | 11.0 % |
Honda | 389,246 | 351,577 | 356,457 | 10.7 % | 9.2 % | 740,823 | 690,281 | 7.3 % | 9.1 % |
Stellantis | 300,473 | 291,189 | 344,993 | 3.2 % | -12.9 % | 591,662 | 677,534 | -12.7 % | 7.3 % |
Nissan-Mitsu | 232,618 | 298,722 | 259,448 | -22.1 % | -10.3 % | 531,340 | 540,586 | -1.7 % | 6.5 % |
Subaru | 154,370 | 166,957 | 169,447 | -7.5 % | -8.9 % | 321,327 | 322,443 | -0.3 % | 4.0 % |
VW | 130,744 | 152,399 | 175,055 | -14.2 % | -25.3 % | 283,143 | 319,584 | -11.4 % | 3.5 % |
Tesla | 130,168 | 128,100 | 164,264 | 1.6 % | -20.8 % | 258,268 | 304,451 | -15.2 % | 3.2 % |
Mazda | 94,924 | 110,316 | 102,383 | -14.0 % | -7.3 % | 205,240 | 202,486 | 1.4 % | 2.5 % |
BMW | 94,612 | 94,591 | 97,135 | 0.0 % | -2.6 % | 189,203 | 187,979 | 0.7 % | 2.3 % |
Daimler | 79,120 | 75,100 | 95,596 | 5.4 % | -17.2 % | 154,220 | 178,219 | -13.5 % | 1.9 % |
Geely Volvo | 34,003 | 34,896 | 31,206 | -2.6 % | 9.0 % | 68,899 | 64,367 | 7.0 % | 0.8 % |
Others | 76,571 | 75,762 | 76,388 | 1.1 % | 0.2 % | 152,333 | 152,166 | 0.1 % | 1.9 % |
NATION | 4,188,766 | 3,923,713 | 4,120,037 | 6.8 % | 1.7 % | 8,112,479 | 7,892,203 | 2.8 % | |
1Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
"The big winner in the first half of 2025 has to be General Motors," added Chesbrough. "Despite all the challenges, GM's sales are expected to finish above 1.4 million units, up more than 12% from last year. Double-digit growth across all GM brands fueled the success. Hyundai, too, had a strong first half and is expected to improve further this year."
One trend emerging in 2025 is the strength of the largest automakers. The five biggest by volume – General Motors, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai, Honda – are all expected to see notable market share growth this year, while smaller or more specialized brands or companies are losing share or, at best, treading water in this market.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
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SOURCE Cox Automotive