Prospects for US consumers diverge as upper-income outlook rebounds, lower-income earners' mood sours--Bain/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes

Overall consumer demand prospects remain resilient as better-off Americans report plans to spend and borrow more amid post-tariffs revival in financial markets 

BOSTON, June 19, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Prospects for US consumers are diverging between income groups as the outlook for upper-income households is boosted by a recent revival in equity markets while the situation for lower-income earners is deteriorating amid signs of a potentially weakening jobs market, latest results of the Bain & Company/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes (CHI) show.

In today's CHI report for June, the indexes' forward-looking consumer outlook score for the upper-income group (those earning more than $100,000 per year), jumped by 10.5 points. This marked its largest single-month gain on record. The steep rise in the outlook gauge for better-off Americans unwinds sharp falls seen in the wake of April's tariff announcements, taking it back to within just one point of its 12-month average.

The resurgence in the outlook reading for upper-income Americans reflects this group's improving expectations for the prospects of their main asset, their investment portfolios, the Bain/Dynata report concludes. The rise in the upper-income group's outlook also lifted the CHI's headline composite outlook reading, across all US income groups and households, to 98.6 – leaving June's score just 1-point below the average over the preceding 12 months.

Alongside this brightening outlook for upper-income consumers in coming months, June's data also shows spending plans for this better-off group strengthening markedly. The CHI intent-to-spend score for the upper-income group rose by a sharp 3.8 points this month, to 110.0 – a highly positive reading well above the gauge's neutral level of 100. 

At the same time, upper-income earners' more positive stance is also confirmed by their CHI score for intent-to-use-debt, which rose by 8.5 points in June, marking its largest single-month gain since mid-2022. This gives a further optimistic signal for upper-income consumers, the report concludes. These households typically use debt in a strategic way, borrowing more when they anticipate favorable economic conditions while reducing debt exposure when they expect worse times ahead.

In sharp contrast with the trends among upper-income Americans, the situation for lower-income US consumers (earning less than $50,000 per year) is deteriorating, with emerging signs of financial strain, today's findings show. The CHI outlook score for the lower-income group fell 2.2 points in June, erasing all its gains made since the fall of 2024 and taking this gauge back to the lowest level in the past 15 months.

The CHI report's intent-to-spend score for lower-income households did hold steady in June, with a 98.6 reading, little changed from May. But the group's savings intentions gauge is subdued, with a low score of 92.8, stuck well below average and a signal of financial stress. In a further sign of emerging strains for this group, its score for intentions to make use of debt meanwhile remains at a high 103.1, versus the long-term neutral level of 100 – a negative indication since these households typically turn to debt in financial emergencies.

Overall, today's CHI report concludes that consumer demand prospects across US income groups as a whole continue to look resilient, given that upper-income Americans, who represent a disproportionate share of discretionary spending, are gaining confidence and report plans to spend more. While the outlook for lower-income households may be souring, the report notes this is yet to translate into a spending pullback by this group.

"In total, we don't see signs of any pullback in overall consumer demand in the near term," said Brian Stobie, senior director in Bain & Company's Macro Trends Group. "The outlook for upper-income US earners is rebounding along with the market. Upper-income Americans are telling us they intend to spend more, not less, and that they also plan to take on more debt. We view these trends as positive news for overall demand. Lower income earners are indicating that something is shifting unfavorably for them, likely in the labor market. Yet, despite the deterioration in their outlook, spending intentions for this group are holding steady for now."

Stobie added: "While many commentators have lamented that recent weakness in 'soft' indicators, such as consumer confidence data, has conflicted with more buoyant 'hard' data, such as retail sales, over the past four months, the Bain/Dynata CHI spending intentions gauge has consistently and accurately forecast resilient spending among US consumers. The data continues to project robust spending, particularly by upper-income earners, over the coming month."

For more details and the full report (PDF), please click here or get in touch via the media contacts below.

Media contacts
For any questions or to arrange an interview, please contact:
Gary Duncan (London) – Email: gary.duncan@bain.com 

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About Dynata

Dynata is the world's largest first-party data company for insights, activation, and measurement. With a reach that encompasses 70 million consumers and business professionals globally and an extensive library of individual profile attributes collected through surveys, Dynata is the cornerstone for precise, trustworthy quality data. The company has built innovative data services and solutions around its robust first-party data offering to bring the voice of the customer to the entire marketing continuum — from uncovering insights to activating campaigns and measuring cross-channel marketing return on investment. Dynata serves more than 6,000 market research, media and advertising agencies, publishers, consulting and investment firms, and corporate customers in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Learn more at www.dynata.com

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