American Airlines Stock to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 24, before market open.American Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 46.11%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchLet’s see how things have shaped up for American Airlines this earnings season.Factors Likely to Have Influenced AAL's Q2 PerformanceThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised upward by 2.60% in the past 60 days to 79 cents per share. However, the consensus mark implies a 27.52% downside from the year-ago actual. The consensus estimate lies within the company-provided guided range of 50 cents-$1.00.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWe expect geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures, and persistent inflation to weigh on AAL’s operations and weaken travel demand. The ongoing economic uncertainties and the resultant reduction in consumer and corporate confidence are likely to have hurt the domestic air travel demand.Escalated labor and airport costs are also likely to have been high, which would have hurt the company’s bottom-line performance in the June quarter. Despite costs on aircraft fuel decreasing year over year (down 12.8% in second-quarter 2025, as per our model), AAL expects to continue experiencing increased cost pressure from the labor agreements and deals inked with the pilots. We expect operating costs to increase 1.4% in second-quarter 2025 from second-quarter 2024 actuals, led by the 6.8% rise in salaries and related costs.For the second quarter of 2025, management expects total revenues to be down 2% to up 1% from the second quarter of 2024 actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $14.29 billion, indicating a 0.3% decline year over year. The downside is likely to have been partially offset by improving travel demand and lower fuel prices.Notably, the southward movement of oil prices bodes well for the bottom-line growth of industry participants. This is because fuel expenses are a significant input cost for the aviation industry. Crude oil is struggling in 2025, with prices sliding to multi-month lows. Tariff concerns, weakening consumer confidence, and the production increase by OPEC+ have all contributed to this downward pressure. Oil prices decreased 6% in the April-June 2025 period.What Our Model Says About AALOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -0.18% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise American Airlines Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Airlines Group Inc. QuoteHighlights of AAL's Q1 EarningsAmerican Airlines’ first-quarter 2025 loss (excluding 13 cents from non-recurring items) of 59 cents per share was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 69 cents. In the year-ago quarter, AAL reported a loss of 34 cents per share. Operating revenues of $12.55 billion edged past the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.52 billion but decreased 0.2% year over year.Stocks to ConsiderHere are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.SkyWest, Inc.SKYW has an Earnings ESP of +3.06% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. SKYW is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 24. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.SkyWest, founded in 1972, is based in St. George and operates regional jets for major U.S. airlines. SKYW is the holding company for SkyWest Airlines, SkyWest Charter and SkyWest Leasing, an aircraft leasing company.SKYW has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 17.1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SKYW’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.30% upward in the past 60 days. SKYW’s second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 28.5% year over year. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) has an Earnings ESP of +3.22% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. KNX is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 23. KNX’s second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 41.67% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KNX’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 2.86% to 34 cents per share in the past 60 days. KNX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), the average beat being 3.25%.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX): Free Stock Analysis Report American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL): Free Stock Analysis Report SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks