Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.Over the past month, shares of this real estate investment trust have returned -1.5%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.9% change. During this period, the Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry, which Arbor Realty Trust falls in, has gained 6.5%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.Arbor Realty Trust is expected to post earnings of $0.28 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -34.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.The consensus earnings estimate of $1.1 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -36.8%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $1.27 indicates a change of +15% from what Arbor Realty Trust is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Arbor Realty Trust is rated Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).Revenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.For Arbor Realty Trust, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $241.53 million indicates a year-over-year change of -15.7%. For the current and next fiscal years, $962.02 million and $957.87 million estimates indicate -17.6% and -0.4% changes, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryArbor Realty Trust reported revenues of $240.3 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -19.1%. EPS of $0.25 for the same period compares with $0.45 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $237.24 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +1.29%. The EPS surprise was -13.79%.Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.Arbor Realty Trust is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Arbor Realty Trust. However, its Zacks Rank #5 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.Free Report: Profiting from the 2nd Wave of AI ExplosionThe next phase of the AI explosion is poised to create significant wealth for investors, especially those who get in early. It will add literally trillion of dollars to the economy and revolutionize nearly every part of our lives.Investors who bought shares like Nvidia at the right time have had a shot at huge gains.But the rocket ride in the "first wave" of AI stocks may soon come to an end. The sharp upward trajectory of these stocks will begin to level off, leaving exponential growth to a new wave of cutting-edge companies.Zacks' AI Boom 2.0: The Second Wave report reveals 4 under-the-radar companies that may soon be shining stars of AI’s next leap forward.Access AI Boom 2.0 now, absolutely free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks