Is a Beat in Store for Progressive This Earnings Season?

The Progressive Corporation PGR is expected to register an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2025 results on July 16, before the opening bell.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $21.5 billion, indicating 17.9% growth from the year-ago reported figure.The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.30 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s second-quarter earnings has moved up 9.4% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests year-over-year growth of 62.3%. Decent Earnings Surprise HistoryProgressive’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, the average surprise being 13.98%. What the Zacks Model Unveils for PGROur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Earnings ESP: PGR has an Earnings ESP of +2.41%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.41 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.30.The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise The Progressive Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Progressive Corporation QuoteZacks Rank: PGR carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.(Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)Factors Likely to Shape Q2 ResultsAn increase in premiums, higher net investment income and fees and service revenues are likely to have favored revenues in the second quarter.A compelling product portfolio, leadership position, strength in the Vehicle and Property businesses, healthy policies in force and solid retention are likely to have aided net premiums earned. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $20.2 billion. The personal auto business is likely to have benefited from competitive product offerings and a strong market presence. Focusing on segmentation and prudent risk selection is likely to have aided policies in force. Both agency and direct auto channels are likely to have driven policy growth. The consensus estimate for personal auto policies in force is pegged at 25.7 million.A larger invested asset base is likely to have aided improvement in net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $861 million. The insurer is likely to have benefited from pretax net realized gains on securities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $103.3 million.  Higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses are likely to have increased expenses.  The consensus mark for loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio is pegged at 69.The second quarter escaped the brutality of catastrophic events, which is likely to benefit underwriting results. This coupled with prudent underwriting is likely to have aided improvement in the combined ratio. The consensus mark for combined ratio is pegged at 89.Other Stocks to ConsiderSome other P&C insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +7.92% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $2.34, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 8.9%ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. KNSL has an Earnings ESP of +2.33% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.39, indicating a year-over-year increase of 17%KNSL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. RNR has an Earnings ESP of +2.16% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $10.19, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 17.8%.RNR’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one. 5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. They includeStock #1: A Disruptive Force with Notable Growth and ResilienceStock #2: Bullish Signs Signaling to Buy the DipStock #3: One of the Most Compelling Investments in the MarketStock #4: Leader In a Red-Hot Industry Poised for GrowthStock #5: Modern Omni-Channel Platform Coiled to SpringMost of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +171%, +209% and +232%.Download Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback free today.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR): Free Stock Analysis Report The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Free Stock Analysis Report Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL): Free Stock Analysis Report Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks