6G Capex Ramp to Start Around 2030, According to Dell'Oro Group
RAN Market Projected to Stay Flat over Next 10 Years
REDWOOD CITY, Calif., Oct. 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- According to a new 6G report by Dell'Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, security, networks, and data center industries, the Radio Access Network (RAN) is not a growth market. Worldwide RAN revenues have grown at a 1 percent CAGR since the year 2000 in nominal USD terms. Adjusted for inflation, the picture is less favorable. As the industry is now entering the second phase of 5G and 6G research is on the rise, the fundamental question is whether the future will be more of the same?
"Our long-term position and characterization of this market have not changed," said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell'Oro Group. "The RAN network plays a pivotal role in the broader telecom market. There are opportunities to expand the RAN beyond the traditional MBB use cases. At the same time, there are serious near-term risks tilted to the downside, particularly when considering the slowdown in data traffic," continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the October 2025 6G Advanced Research Report:
- The baseline scenario is for the broader RAN market to stay flat over the next 10 years. This is built on the assumption that the mobile network will run into utilization challenges by the end of the decade, spurring a 6G capex ramp dominated by Massive MIMO systems in the Sub-7GHz/cm Wave spectrum, utilizing the existing macro grid as much as possible.
- The report also outlines more optimistic and pessimistic growth scenarios, depending largely on the mobile data traffic growth trajectory and the impact beyond MBB, including private wireless and FWA (fixed wireless access).
- Cumulative 6G RAN investments over the 2029-2034 period are projected to account for 55 to 60 percent of the total RAN capex over the same forecast period.
Dell'Oro Group's 6G Advanced Research Report offers an overview of the RAN market by technology, with tables covering manufacturers' revenue for total RAN over the next 10 years. 6G RAN is analyzed by spectrum (Sub-7 GHz, cmWave, mmWave), by Massive MIMO, and by region (North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, China, Asia Pacific Excl. China, and CALA). To purchase this report, please contact by email at dgsales@delloro.com.
Dell'Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, enterprise network, data center infrastructure, and network security markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell'Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit https://www.delloro.com/.
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SOURCE Dell'Oro Group