Invitation Homes to Report Q3 Earnings: What to Expect From the Stock?

Invitation Homes INVH is slated to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29, after market close. The company’s quarterly results are likely to report a year-over-year increase in revenues and no change in funds from operations (FFO) per share.In the last reported quarter, this residential real estate investment trust (REIT) posted a core FFO per share of 48 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents. Results reflected higher same-store net operating income (NOI) and same-store blended rent. However, lower occupancy marred the performance to an extent.Over the preceding four quarters, INVH’s core FFO per share met the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and surpassed it in the other two periods, with the average beat being 1.08%. The graph below depicts this surprise history:Invitation Home Price and EPS Surprise Invitation Home price-eps-surprise | Invitation Home QuoteIn this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. apartment market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that may have contributed to its third-quarter 2025 performance.U.S. Apartment Market in Q3After two years of robust growth, the U.S. apartment market has finally hit a pause, with rent growth slipping into negative territory in the third quarter of 2025. According to RealPage data, effective asking rents fell 0.3% between July and September, the first rent cut between July and September since 2009. In the year-ending third quarter, rents slipped 0.1%. The slowdown reflects a cooling economy.About 637,000 market-rate apartments were absorbed in the year-ending third-quarter 2025. While still healthy by long-term standards, it is a clear step down from the record nearly 784,900 units absorbed in the year-ending second-quarter 2025. “Sluggish new lease activity” is the culprit, said RealPage Chief Economist Carl Whitaker, pointing to weaker job growth and more cautious consumer behavior as key factors behind the shift amid an uncertain economic backdrop.While demand cooled, construction of roughly 474,800 units was completed nationwide over the past year, including 105,500 in the third quarter alone. That’s below last year’s peak but still well above normal supply levels. With so many new units hitting the market, landlords have had to compete harder to fill vacancies. Occupancy slipped to 95.4% in the quarter, down 30 basis points and ending five consecutive quarters of gains.To attract renters, concessions became more common, with 22% of properties offering discounts averaging 6.2%. Operators are increasingly prioritizing occupancy over pricing power, suggesting rent softness may persist until concessions taper off. Interestingly, resident retention rose year over year, as renters chose to stay put amid economic uncertainty.The rent cuts haven’t hit every region equally. Markets that built aggressively during the boom, especially across the South and West, are seeing the steepest declines. Rents dropped nearly 8% in Denver and Austin and around 5% in Phoenix and San Antonio, TX. Meanwhile, tourism-driven cities such as Las Vegas, Orlando, Nashville and San Diego are softening, too, as travelers spend less and local economies cool. In contrast, markets with lighter construction pipelines, such as the Midwest and Northeast, have held up better. Tech-heavy coastal hubs like San Francisco, New York and San Jose even saw modest rent growth, likely helped by return-to-office policies and limited new deliveries.Factors at Play and Projections for Invitation HomesIn this environment, INVH’s quarterly performance is likely to have benefited from a diverse portfolio of single-family rental units in infill locations in high-growth markets. Solid demand for such rental units with favorable demographic trends is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the third quarter.Moreover, the company is leveraging technological initiatives and process enhancements for margin expansion. Such efforts are likely to have captured additional net operating income (NOI), driving its profitability.For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for INVH’s rental revenues currently stands at $659.45 million, up from $575.46 million reported in the prior-year period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter total revenues is pegged at $679.26 million, indicating a rise of 2.87% from the year-ago reported number.However, the high supply of rental properties in some markets is likely to have an adverse impact.Invitation Homes’ activities in the to-be-reported quarter were inadequate to garner analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share has remained unchanged at 47 cents over the past three months. Moreover, the figure suggests no change year over year.What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for Invitation HomesOur proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for INVH this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.Invitation Homes currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are two stocks from the broader REIT sector — Ventas VTR and Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT— that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.Ventas, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Oct. 29, has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Federal Realty, slated to release quarterly numbers on Oct. 31, has an Earnings ESP of +0.26% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is HereThe AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.See "2nd Wave" AI stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Ventas, Inc. (VTR): Free Stock Analysis Report Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT): Free Stock Analysis Report Invitation Home (INVH): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks