Signs of destabilization emerge for US consumers amid economic uncertainty but spending intentions hold steady for now--Bain/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes

BOSTON, May 15, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Signs of destabilization are emerging for US consumers across all income groups amid heightened uncertainty over economic prospects and potential anxieties that tariffs could push up retail prices, the latest results of the Bain & Company/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes show today.

Sharp declines in savings intentions among both upper-income and middle-income Americans, combined with increased intent to use debt among lower-income households, provide clear evidence that recent events have jolted US consumers out of their normal equilibrium, the Bain/Dynata analysis concludes.

The Consumer Health Indexes' overall intent-to-save score for all income groups dropped in this month's CHI report by 5.1 points, led by declines in savings intentions for upper-income and middle-income households. The intent-to-save score for middle-income Americans, earning $50-100k per year, fell by 10.2 points, its largest single-month decline in the past five years. The matching score for upper-income households, those earning more than $100k per year, tumbled by 8.3 points – its largest decline on record since the CHI data began in January 2018.

The sharp falls in savings intentions for both groups suggest these consumers may be anticipating saving less in coming months as a consequence of potentially paying higher prices for goods due to possible impacts from tariffs, the Bain/Dynata report finds. While the fall in savings intent was not mirrored among lower-income Americans (earning less than $50k per year), that group's intent to use debt rose in the May data, climbing by 1.3 points over the past month, as well as by around five points over the past three months. This suggests that lower-income earners, with less available funds for saving after living costs, may expect to absorb any tariff-induced price increases via use of debt, the report notes.

The indications of destabilization among US consumers come after the CHI's headline outlook score for all households fell sharply, by 5.3 points last month, to 94.6. This decline was driven by the sharpest-ever drop in the outlook gauge for upper-income consumers, which plummeted by 11.8 points to 88.6. In the new May CHI data, released today, the headline composite outlook reading held broadly steady (at 95.1, up 0.5 points) while remaining firmly in negative territory below its neutral level of 100. The May outlook reading for upper-income households remained at a depressed 89.1, 10 points below the neutral level, reflecting this group's currently adverse expectations for their investment portfolios in the wake of recent market turmoil.

However, despite the signs of consumer destabilization, the Bain/Dynata analysis cautions against assuming that this implies any imminent spending pullback by US consumers.  The CHI's gauge of intent-to-spend held steady in May, down some 1.5 points from April, but still standing at 102.0, above the long-term neutral level.  The intent-to-spend reading for upper-income Americans remains in positive territory, with a score of 106.2, while the middle-income score is near neutral at 100.1, and the lower income group's intent-to-spend score is also just below neutral, at 98.9. 

The Bain/Dynata report suggests these relatively resilient readings for spending intentions indicate that consumers are reacting to present uncertainties by curbing their savings plans or, among the lower-income group, considering the use of debt. The Bain/Dynata analysis concludes that overall consumer spending is not expected to fall unless there is a rise in US unemployment, threatening consumers' spending power. But the report cautions this does not mean all consumer-facing businesses are in the clear, with some likely to encounter a squeeze amid signs of a more cautious consumer, particularly in categories where spending is more discretionary, or more exposed to tariffs.

"Consumers across all income groups are showing signs of destabilization. It looks like this uncertainty will take the form of shifts in saving behavior and use of debt in the near-term as opposed to impact on overall spending," Brian Stobie, senior director in Bain & Company's Macro Trends Group, said. "There has been a lot of talk of consumer pull-back but we don't see it yet. Upper-income earners still report positive spending readings, which is an encouraging sign for the near-term resilience of consumer demand in the US, especially given that group's outsized share of discretionary spending. But while overall spending may hold steady, some product categories will feel pressure as consumers prioritize where to spend their dollars in the face of price increases."

For more details and the full report (PDF), please click here or get in touch via the media contacts below.

Media contacts 
To arrange an interview or for any questions, please contact:
Gary Duncan (London) — Email: gary.duncan@bain.com
Amanda Folsom (Boston) — Email: amanda.folsom@bain.com

About Bain & Company

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About Dynata

Dynata is the world's largest first-party data company for insights, activation, and measurement. With a reach that encompasses 70 million consumers and business professionals globally and an extensive library of individual profile attributes collected through surveys, Dynata is the cornerstone for precise, trustworthy quality data. The company has built innovative data services and solutions around its robust first-party data offering to bring the voice of the customer to the entire marketing continuum — from uncovering insights to activating campaigns and measuring cross-channel marketing return on investment. Dynata serves more than 6,000 market research, media and advertising agencies, publishers, consulting and investment firms, and corporate customers in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Learn more at www.dynata.com

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