The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Inched Down in May

NEW YORK, June 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US ticked down by 0.1% in May 2025 to 99.0 (2016=100), after declining by 1.4% in April (revised downward from –1.0% originally reported). The LEI has fallen by 2.7% in the six-month period ending May 2025, a much faster rate of decline than the 1.4% contraction over the previous six months.

"The LEI for the US fell again in May, but only marginally," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the Index.  However, consumers' pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May's overall decline. With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal. The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US inched up by 0.1% in May 2025 to 115.1 (2016=100), after a 0.2% increase in April. The CEI rose by 1.3% over the six-month period between November 2024 and May 2025, more than twice as fast as its 0.5% growth over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Industrial production was the weakest contributor to the index in May and the only CEI component declining.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.4% to 119.6 (2016=100) in May 2025, after a 0.3% increase in April. The LAG's six-month growth rate was also positive at 0.8% between November 2024 and May 2025—a reversal of its 0.3% decline over the previous six months (May–November 2024).

The next release is scheduled for Monday, July 21, 2025, at 10 A.M. ET.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are:

• Average weekly hours in manufacturing
• Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
• Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
• ISM^® Index of New Orders
• Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
• Building permits for new private housing units
• S&P 500^® Index of Stock Prices
• Leading Credit Index^™
• Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
• Average consumer expectations for business conditions

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the US are:

• Payroll employment
• Personal income less transfer payments
• Manufacturing and trade sales
• Industrial production

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org 

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-inched-down-in-may-302487137.html

SOURCE The Conference Board