What's in the Cards for Kimco Realty Stock in Q2 Earnings?

Kimco Realty Corporation KIM is slated to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display year-over-year growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.In the last reported quarter, this Jericho, NY-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) reported FFO per share of 44 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents. Results reflected better-than-expected growth in revenues, though a rise in interest expenses acted as a dampener.Over the preceding four quarters, Kimco’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and met in the remaining period, the average beat being 3.04%. This is depicted in the graph below: Kimco Realty Corporation Price and EPS Surprise Kimco Realty Corporation price-eps-surprise | Kimco Realty Corporation Quote U.S. Retail Real Estate Market in Q2 2025Per a Cushman & Wakefield CWK report, there has been a slight pullback in net absorption for the U.S. shopping center market, resulting in a negative shift in the second quarter. The national vacancy rate increased year over year, but remained low from 2017 to 2019. Asking rents for the U.S. shopping center market grew from the year-ago quarter.The second quarter witnessed negative net absorption in the U.S. shopping center market, totaling 6.5 million square feet (msf) compared to negative 7.1 msf in the first quarter. Although this is a marginal improvement from the first quarter, it represents absorption being recorded as negative for the first time for two consecutive quarters in the post-pandemic era. The decrease was due to negative net absorption observed in all four regions of the country. According to Cushman & Wakefield Research, 56 of the 81 markets tracked experienced absorption declines.The lack of new construction is also contributing to the scarcity, as only 4.6 msf of new shopping center space was delivered from the beginning of the year through July 14, 2025. As of the second quarter of 2025, there are only 10.9 msf under construction with an inventory of 4.30 billion square feet.Although the national vacancy rate increased 50 basis points to 5.8% year over year, the vacancy rate remains low from the 6.4% level for the 2017-2019 period.The reversal in net demand is leading to easing pressure on asking rents. The asking rents for U.S. shopping centers increased 2.3% year over year to $24.99 per square foot in the second quarter.Factors to Consider Ahead of KIM’s Upcoming ResultsIn the second quarter, Kimco seems to have gained from its portfolio of premium shopping centers, which are predominantly grocery-anchored and are in the drivable first-ring suburbs of its top major metropolitan Sunbelt and coastal markets.Led by a healthy mix of essential, necessity-based tenants and omnichannel retailers, this retail REIT enjoys a diverse tenant base. This is likely to have aided stable revenue generation during the to-be-reported quarter, driving top-line growth. Moreover, Kimco’s focus on developing mixed-use assets clustered in strong economic metropolitan statistical areas is likely to have given it an edge by driving net asset value.However, high interest expenses are anticipated to have affected Kimco’s performance to some extent during the quarter.Q2 Projections for KIMThe company’s top line is expected to have improved due to the above tailwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KIM’s quarterly revenues stands at $526.8 million, implying 5.3% growth from the prior-year reported number.Our estimate for net revenues from rental properties stands at $519.4 million, suggesting a 4.7% increase year over year. We expect KIM’s leased occupancy to increase 20 basis points sequentially to 96% in the to-be-reported quarter. However, we estimate a year-over-year increase of 7.5% in its second-quarter interest expenses.Before the second-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share has declined a cent to 42 cents in the past week. However, it suggests a year-over-year increase of 2.4%.What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for KIMOur proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Kimco this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.Kimco currently has an Earnings ESP of -2.08% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are two stocks from the retail REIT sector — Brixmor Property Group BRX and The Macerich Company MAC — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.BRX, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on July 28, has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.MAC, slated to release quarterly numbers on Aug. 11, has an Earnings ESP of +0.67% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.5% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM): Free Stock Analysis Report Macerich Company (The) (MAC): Free Stock Analysis Report Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX): Free Stock Analysis Report Cushman & Wakefield PLC (CWK): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks