Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.Over the past month, shares of this company have returned +43.6%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11.3% change. During this period, the Zacks Medical - Products industry, which Canopy Growth falls in, has gained 7.9%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.Earnings Estimate RevisionsHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.Canopy Growth is expected to post a loss of $0.28 per share for the current quarter, representing no change from the year-ago quarter. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.The consensus earnings estimate of -$3.20 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +21%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of -$0.67 indicates a change of +79% from what Canopy Growth is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Canopy Growth.The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSRevenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.For Canopy Growth, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $49.92 million indicates a year-over-year change of -7.5%. For the current and next fiscal years, $192.6 million and $206.94 million estimates indicate -21.2% and +7.5% changes, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryCanopy Growth reported revenues of $53.44 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -7.3%. EPS of -$0.76 for the same period compares with -$1.79 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $47.69 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +12.06%. The EPS surprise was -58.33%.Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.Canopy Growth is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Canopy Growth. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.9% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks