Capital One (COF) Down 8.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Capital One (COF). Shares have lost about 8.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Capital One due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Capital One Financial Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.Capital One Q3 Earnings Beat as Discover Deal Drives NII and Fee IncomeCapital One’s third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $5.95 per share widely surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.20. The bottom line also compared favorably with $5.48 in the prior quarter.Results benefited from an increase in net interest income and non-interest income, and lower provisions. Also, higher loans and a stable deposit balance supported the performance. However, a rise in expenses was undermining the factor.Results excluded several non-recurring items, including charges related to the Discover Financial acquisition. After considering these, net income available to common shareholders was $3.09 billion or $4.83 per share against a net loss of $4.34 billion or $8.58 per share in the last quarter.Revenues Increase, Expenses JumpTotal net revenues were $15.36 billion, jumping 23% sequentially. Also, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.9 billion.NII surged 24% from the prior quarter to $12.4 billion. NIM expanded 74 basis points (bps) to 8.36%. Non-interest income of $2.96 billion grew 18%. The rise was driven by higher service charges and other customer-related fees, and discount and interchange fees, partially offset by a fall in other income. Non-interest expenses were $8.26 billion, up 18%. The rise was due to an increase in almost all cost components except professional services. Adjusted expenses were $7.42 billion, jumping 16%.The efficiency ratio was 53.8%, up from 53.07% in the last quarter. A rise in the efficiency ratio indicates a deterioration in profitability.As of Sept. 30, 2025, loans held for investment were $443.2 billion, up 1% from the prior-quarter end. Total deposits were $468.8 billion, relatively stable.Credit Quality: A Mixed BagProvision for credit losses was $2.71 billion, a 76% fall from the prior quarter. Additionally, allowance, as a percentage of reported loans held for investment, was 5.21%, down 22 bps.Further, the net charge-off rate declined 8 bps to 3.16%. On the other hand, the 30-plus-day-performing delinquency rate rose 16 bps sequentially to 3.29%.Capital Ratios ImproveAs of Sept. 30, 2025, the Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 15.5%, up from 15.1% as of June 30, 2025. The common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 14.4%, improving from 14%.Share Repurchase UpdateIn the reported quarter, the company repurchased 4.6 million shares for $1 billion.OutlookThe integration cost from the Discover acquisition is expected to be slightly higher than the previously announced $2.8 billion. Capital One remains on track to deliver $2.5 billion in combined synergies.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.The consensus estimate has shifted 8.11% due to these changes.VGM ScoresCurrently, Capital One has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Capital One has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Capital One Financial Corporation (COF): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks