How to Find Strong Consumer Staples Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises

Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.The Zacks Earnings ESP, ExplainedThe Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.Should You Consider Ollie's Bargain Outlet?The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.95 a share 30 days away from its upcoming earnings release on September 4, 2025.By taking the percentage difference between the $0.95 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.91 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Ollie's Bargain Outlet has an Earnings ESP of +4.73%. Investors should also know that OLLI is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.OLLI is part of a big group of Consumer Staples stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Estee Lauder (EL) as well.Estee Lauder is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on August 20, 2025. EL's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.12 a share 15 days from its next earnings release.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder is $0.08, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +36.11%.OLLI and EL's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're ReportedUse the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>Should You Invest in Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI)?Before you invest in Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI), want to know the best stocks to buy for the next 30 days? Check out Zacks Investment Research for our free report on the 7 best stocks to buy.Zacks Investment Research has been committed to providing investors with tools and independent research since 1978. For more than a quarter century, the Zacks Rank stock-rating system has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.08% per year. (These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 6, 2024.)Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI): Free Stock Analysis Report The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks