Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Dips in September as Q3 Closes Strong; Q4 Outlook Turns Cautious
- The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index slipped to 207.0 in September, down 0.2% from August but up 2% year over year, reflecting seasonal adjustments.
- As Q3 closed, wholesale values remained higher than typical seasonal depreciation trends.
- Used electric vehicle (EV) values rose 6.4% year over year in September, continuing six consecutive months of stronger appreciation than the overall market.
ATLANTA, Oct. 7, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down slightly in September compared to August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 207.0, lower by 0.2% versus August levels but showing an increase of 2% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment caused the index to decrease for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values moved slightly higher in September. The non-adjusted price in September increased just 0.1% compared to August, moving the unadjusted average price higher by 2.1% year over year. The long-term move on average for non-seasonally adjusted values is a decline of 0.3% in the month, demonstrating that the unadjusted depreciation trends in September were less than normally seen.
"As we close the books on Q3, we've continued to see wholesale values remain elevated against normal depreciation trends, even with declines in September and right as tax incentives on EVs come to an end," said Jeremy Robb, deputy chief economist for Cox Automotive. "Both new and used retail sales were fairly elevated over most of Q3, but we started to see some declines in the last few weeks of September. Simultaneously, we observed that weekly wholesale valuations declined a bit more than earlier in the month, as the relationship between supply on dealer lots and wholesale values remains strongly intertwined."
While Strong Overall, Used-Vehicle Market Ends Q3 With Worrying Signs
The used-vehicle market remains strong, with Cox Automotive projecting full-year 2025 used sales between 37.9 million and 38.5 million units, slightly above the original forecast. "Our biggest question heading into Q3 was about the impact of tariffs on the economy and auto markets; but thankfully those fears didn't come to fruition," Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke said. "Year to date, the economy and auto market have performed better than we had expected, and we believe tariffs have actually led us to a stronger used-vehicle market."
However, Smoke cautioned that Q4 could slow down due to supply shifts, tariffs keeping prices high and rising interest rates. "The signs from the last few weeks are not promising. September ended with used-vehicle prices at their highest point since the start of the year. Used-vehicle sales have seen a slowdown, and when coupling that with interest rates moving up, the picture for Q4 isn't the prettiest."
Still, he said, "We're not expecting the economy to crater or vehicle demand to decline substantially because we still have pent-up demand. However, the fourth quarter is likely to be the most challenging this year."
MMR Values Show Slightly Higher-Than-Normal Depreciation in September
In September, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values declined over the month of September, with smaller declines early in the month and a larger drop in the final week. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.6%, just a bit more than usually seen. Those same weeks delivered an average decrease of 1.5% between 2014 and 2019, indicating depreciation trends were just one-tenth of a point higher than the historical average for the month. Depreciation trends for 3-year-old MMR values were higher than last year as well, with a decline of 1.1% observed in September 2024, following a stronger Q3 and off-lease maturities that fell sharply.
Throughout the month, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99%, meaning market prices moved further below MMR values and were lower against August levels by 0.8%. Compared to last year, valuation models were down by 0.3% for MMR retention and below other years for the month, except for 2022. The average daily sales conversion rate also declined to 58.3%, a decline of 2.7 percentage points against last month but generally higher than normally seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 57% in September over the last two years, indicating stronger-than-average sales conversion for this time of year and suggesting a more favorable market for sellers.
Luxury Leads Year-Over-Year Gains as Compact Cars Lag in Mixed Segment Performance
Major market segments remain mixed for seasonally adjusted prices year over year in September. Compared to the same month last year, the luxury segment continues to be up the most, as it is influenced by trends in the EV segment, and it was higher by 2.3%, with SUVs increasing by 0.7% over the last year, though below the industry average seasonally adjusted price change of 2%. Also falling more than the industry average, trucks were down by just 0.3%, while mid-size sedans declined 0.6%, as compact cars fell the most, down 6.5% against last year. Major market segments were also mixed compared to the previous month, with mid-sized sedans showing the only gain month over month, higher by 0.2%. The luxury segment was down by 0.3%, pickups fell by 0.5%, and SUVs declined by 0.9%. The compact car segment fell the most and was down 2% against August.
Used EV Values Continue To Outperform Market, Driven by Demand Ahead of Tax Credit Expiration
Looking at the market by powertrain, electric vehicle values continue to show larger gains against last year than the market overall, as sales remained elevated over the quarter, with the impending expiration of tax credits driving higher levels of consumer demand. Robb noted, "Consumers kept the pace of new and used EV purchases high over the quarter, prior to the expiration of the tax incentive. This heightened demand pushed EV wholesale values higher again this month, making EVs the strongest-performing segment in year-over-year value appreciation." EV values have shown higher year-over-year appreciation trends for six months in a row and were higher by 6.4% against the same month in 2024, while non-EVs rose by 1%. For September results against the prior month, EV values rose by 0.8% month over month, while non-EVs declined by 1%.
Retail Used-Vehicle Sales Dip in September, While Inventory Increases
Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, initial estimates of retail used-vehicle sales in September were down 3.9% compared to August and down by 2% year over year. The average retail listing price for a used vehicle increased 1.5% over the last four weeks.
Using estimates of retail used days' supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates September ended at 46 days' supply, up two days from 44 days at the end of August and up one day from September 2024 at 43 days.
New-Vehicle Sales Decrease in September, Sales Pace Remains Steady
New-vehicle sales in September increased 6.7% from last year, but volume decreased from August, dropping 14.2% but showing a continued strong pace of new-vehicle sales. The September sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 16.4 million, up 600,000 from last year's pace and even with the very strong 16.4 million level in August.
Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government fleets rose again, up nearly 12% year over year in September, led by gains in the rental and government sectors. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining retail sales were estimated to be up 6.8% from last year, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 13.4 million, up slightly from 13.4 million last September but down from August's estimated 13.7 million level. Fleet share in September was estimated to be 15.5%, unchanged from last year.
Cox Automotive Revisits Used and Wholesale Vehicle Market Forecast and Outlook for 2025
As announced on Sept. 25 in its Q3 Industry Insights and Sales Forecast Call, Cox Automotive has revisited its 2025 forecasts. All forecasts were upgraded except for leases and the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. Cox Automotive projects that used-vehicle sales will reach 20.3 million in 2025, which is an estimated 2% increase compared to 2024. Sales growth is expected to remain muted, as retail and wholesale supply will continue to be constrained in the remainder of the year due to lower production during the pandemic and fewer lease maturities returning to the market.
Due to market volatility and stronger year-over-year comparisons expected in late 2025, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was revised over the summer to be 1.8% higher year over year in December 2025, just under its long-term average. This full-year forecast remains unchanged.
Read the commentary and download the presentation for the Q3 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index quarterly call for more perspective on the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index performance.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet owners. The company has 25,000-plus employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook, or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
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SOURCE Cox Automotive