Mastercard vs. Affirm: Which Payments Stock Has More Room to Run?

Mastercard Incorporated MA and Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM sit on two very different ends of the digital payments spectrum. Mastercard is a global legacy player with a stronghold in credit and debit card transactions. Affirm, on the other hand, is a rising disruptor in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) space, aiming to reinvent consumer credit with transparent, flexible instalment plans.Despite their differences, both companies share a common mission: facilitating consumer spending in an increasingly cashless world. With the digital payments industry undergoing rapid transformation, investors are rightly comparing the old guard with the new innovators to see who might lead the next chapter of growth.Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of the two stocks to determine which stock is more attractive now.The Case for MastercardMastercard remains a titan in the payments world. Its global infrastructure spans more than 210 countries, processing trillions of dollars annually. The company has a long history of steady revenue growth, supported by its entrenched relationships with banks, merchants and consumers.In its latest quarter, it reported earnings of $3.73 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.5% on increased gross dollar volume, cross-border volumes, strong demand for value-added services and growth in switched transactions due to robust consumer spending. However, the upside was partly offset by escalating operating expenses and higher rebates and incentives.It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average surprise of 3.7%.Mastercard Incorporated Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Mastercard Incorporated price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Mastercard Incorporated QuoteThe company continues to invest in cybersecurity, AI-powered fraud detection and digital identity, key components to maintaining its dominance in the modern age. But Mastercard is not without its challenges. The business model heavily relies on transaction fees and global economic activity. As interest rates remain high and consumer debt grows, credit card usage could soften, especially among younger consumers who are increasingly wary of revolving credit.Moreover, the company's innovation curve is not as steep as the emerging fintech rivals. It has made attempts to tap into the BNPL space through Mastercard Installments, but it’s playing catch-up, not leading at the moment.The Case for AffirmAffirm represents a bold bet on the future of consumer finance. The company has positioned itself at the intersection of e-commerce and credit, offering flexible financing solutions at the point of sale. This is particularly appealing to younger consumers who are wary of traditional credit cards and appreciate transparent terms.While Affirm does take on credit risk, the company uses real-time underwriting and AI to manage its loans efficiently. And so far, its performance has defied many skeptics. In its most recent quarter, Affirm saw 36% year-over-year growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and reported improving margins, signaling a path toward profitability.Its March quarter earnings of a penny beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 9 cents per share on the back of growth in GMV, rising transaction volumes fueled by repeat customers, and surging card network revenues. However, the upside was partly offset by an elevated expense level and rising provision for credit losses. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average surprise of 102.2%.Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Affirm Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Affirm Holdings, Inc. QuoteImportantly, Affirm has secured partnerships with major retailers like Amazon, Shopify and Costco, giving it access to millions of consumers. While Mastercard dominates in traditional card payments, Affirm is building the rails for the next generation of payments, one that's mobile-first, embedded at checkout, and designed for transparency and flexibility. AFRM’s 0% APR solutions have witnessed massive growth over the past few quarters.From a stock perspective, Affirm’s shares have been volatile, but that volatility may present an opportunity. While Mastercard trades more like a utility with relatively modest growth expectations, Affirm has the potential for outsized returns if its BNPL model continues to scale. While AFRM has a beta of 3.66, Mastercard seems stable at 1.06. Having entered the U.K. market after success in North America, AFRM now plans to extend operations into Western Europe, starting with France, Germany and the Netherlands, in partnership with Shopify.Price Performance ComparisonOver the past 12 months, Mastercard stock has delivered a respectable 26.9% return, largely outperforming the S&P 500’s 12% gain. Affirm, however, has had a more dramatic ride, as u can see in the figure below, delivering a 59.1% increase.1-Year Price Performance – MA, AFRM & S&P 500 Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchValuation: MA vs. AFRMMastercard trades at a forward P/E of 34.35X, higher than its three-year median of 29.84X and the S&P 500’s21.88X. Affirm, on the other hand, doesn't yet have a proper traditional P/E ratio history due to negative earnings, but its price-to-sales ratio of 4.41X is lower than the S&P 500’s5.13X, which is low relative to other high-growth fintech names.The valuation gap hints at potential upside if the company continues to execute. For long-term investors willing to stomach volatility, Affirm’s current valuation presents a disruptive growth story.How Do Zacks Estimates Compare for MA & AFRM?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard’s 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 13.1% and 9.3%, respectively. Similarly, the estimates for Affirm’s current year sales and EPS signal 37% and 95.8% year-over-year improvements. MA and AFRM’s next-year EPS estimates indicate further 23.7% and 959.5% year-over-year jumps, respectively. Both stocks’ EPS estimates have remained stable over the past week.Mastercard’s Trend Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAFRM’s Trend Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchConclusionMastercard is consistent, profitable and globally entrenched. It offers a lower-risk profile and dependable returns. But it also lacks the disruptive edge that could redefine the future of consumer finance. Affirm, while still familiarizing itself with generating profits and more volatile, has a compelling growth story. With strong merchant partnerships, innovative underwriting technology, and a foothold in a fast-growing niche, Affirm appears well-positioned to capitalize on shifting consumer preferences and digital spending trends.For investors seeking future gains rather than stability, Affirm has the edge at the moment, even though the companies currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.0% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Free Stock Analysis Report Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks