Should You Buy Barrick Mining Stock After a 28% Rally in a Month?

Barrick Mining Corporation’s B shares have surged 27.6% in the past month. The rally has been largely driven by the record-setting upside in gold prices amid geopolitical and trade-related uncertainties. Gold prices are soaring to the moon, driven by uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade tariffs and increased prospects of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut. Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 14.3% increase, and has topped the S&P 500’s rise of 2.5% in the past month. Among its gold mining peers, Newmont Corporation NEM, Kinross Gold Corporation KGC and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM have racked up gains of 10.2%, 17% and 12.7%, respectively, over the same period.B’s 1-month Price Performance Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe B stock broke out above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on May 30, 2025.  Barrick is also currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA since the golden crossover on April 9, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.B Trades Above 50-Day SMA Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchLet’s take a look at Barrick’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.Key Projects to Underpin Production Growth for BarrickBarrick is well-placed to benefit from the progress in key growth projects, which should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects, including Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are underway. These projects are advancing on schedule and within budget, laying the groundwork for the next generation of profitable production. The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. The project has progressed to a prefeasibility study on the back of a successful drilling program. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase. The first production is expected by the end of 2028. Also, the $2 billion Super Pit Expansion Project at its Lumwana mine is progressing steadily, accelerating its shift into a Tier One copper mine. Barrick recently stated that the Lumwana expansion is the result of a significant turnaround, transforming the mine from an underperforming asset into a vital part of both its global copper portfolio and Zambia’s long-term development strategy.Barrick’s Strong Liquidity & Attractive Dividend Bode WellBarrick has a solid liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, positioning it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, drive shareholder value and reduce debt. At the end of second-quarter 2025, Barrick’s cash and cash equivalents were around $4.8 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $1.3 billion in the quarter, up 15% year over year. Free cash flow rose to around $395 million in the second quarter from $340 million in the prior-year quarter. Barrick returned $1.2 billion to its shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases. Barrick’s board, in February 2025, authorized a new program for the repurchase of up to $1 billion of its outstanding common shares. It repurchased shares worth $411 million under this program during the first half of 2025. Higher gold prices should translate into strong profit margins and free cash flow generation for Barrick. Gold prices are shooting higher this year, largely attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump that have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies. Bullion has surged 39% so far this year, with rising hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the September policy meeting, a weak U.S dollar and tariff-related uncertainties triggering the rally lately, driving prices north of $3,600 per ton for the first time. Concerns over the labor markets have heightened the rate cut expectations. Increased purchases by central banks and geopolitical and trade tensions are factors expected to help the yellow metal sustain the upswing in gold prices.   Barrick offers a dividend yield of 2.1% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 25% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 3%.Higher Production Costs Weigh on Barrick StockBarrick is challenged by higher costs, which may eat into its margins. Its cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 17% and 12% year over year, respectively, in the second quarter. AISC of $1,684 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce, although declining 5% from the previous quarter. Lower year-over-year production, partly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, also contributed to the rise in its unit costs. For 2025, Barrick continues to see total cash costs per ounce of $1,050-$1,130 and AISC in the range of $1,460-$1,560 per ounce. These projections suggest a year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the respective ranges. Higher labor and energy costs may result in increased costs.Downbeat FY25 Production View Dampens Barrick’s ProspectsThe company expects attributable gold production in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for full-year 2025, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto, which is temporarily suspended. While a potential restart of the mine would provide an upside, this projection suggests a year-over-year decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024. Higher production from Pueblo Viejo, Turquoise Ridge, Porgera and Kibali, along with stable performance across Carlin and Cortez, is projected to be offset by reduced production across Veladero and Phoenix. Lower production is expected to weigh on the company’s performance in 2025.Barrick’s Earnings Estimates NorthboundEarnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 has been revised higher over the same time frame. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 56.4% and 21.8%, respectively. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchValuation Looks Attractive for B StockB stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 12.84X, a roughly 15.6% discount to the industry’s average of 15.21X. Barrick is trading at a discount to Newmont, Agnico Eagle and  Kinross Gold.  Barrick, Newmont and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, AEM & KGC Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHow Should Investors Play the B Stock?Barrick presents a compelling investment case, with a strong pipeline of growth projects, solid financials, rallying gold prices and a healthy growth trajectory. Its actions to boost production, rising earnings estimates, attractive valuation and a safe dividend yield paint a promising picture. Surging gold prices should boost its profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, its high costs and downbeat production outlook warrant caution. Therefore, retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.See our %%CTA_TEXT%% report – free today!7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Newmont Corporation (NEM): Free Stock Analysis Report Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): Free Stock Analysis Report Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): Free Stock Analysis Report Barrick Mining Corporation (B): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks