Ulta Beauty Sees Steady Comps: Is Broad-Based Growth Enough?

Ulta Beauty, Inc. ULTA started fiscal 2025 with a modest uptick in comparable sales, reporting a 2.9% gain in the first quarter driven by higher average ticket values and slight growth in transactions. However, the results prompt a closer look. Is this growth evenly spread across the business or concentrated in a few outperforming areas?The company’s modest comparable sales gains were lifted by strong performance in fragrance and wellness, with double-digit fragrance growth and high-single-digit gains in body care and sun care. However, other core segments told a different story. Haircare was flat overall, with declines in mass hair and tools offsetting growth in color and accessories. Meanwhile, the makeup category, a critical pillar of Ulta Beauty’s offering, saw slightly negative comparable sales, largely due to weakness in mass makeup.Both digital and store channels contributed to Ulta Beauty’s comparable sales growth in the fiscal first quarter, with e-commerce rising approximately 10% and comparable store sales increasing in the low single digits. The average ticket grew 2.3%, primarily driven by higher average selling prices, though this was partially offset by a decline in units per transaction. Promotional activity was more disciplined, as ULTA eliminated overlapping offers and leveraged targeted member data, efforts that enhanced clarity and supported stronger operational execution.Looking ahead, Ulta Beauty expects comparable sales growth for fiscal 2025 to range from flat to up 1.5%, with the second half projected to vary from down low-single digits to up modestly. While early results show signs of progress, leadership emphasized a measured approach to guidance given the dynamic operating environment. The strength seen in select categories and channels will need to broaden meaningfully for the company to maintain steady comparable sales performance through the remainder of the year.Ulta Beauty’s Zacks Rank & Share Price PerformanceShares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have risen 39.3% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 28.7% growth. ULTA outperformed the broader Retail and Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 index’s growth of 18% and 23.3%, respectively, during the same period.ULTA Stock's Past 3-Month PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchClosing the last trading session at $477.79, ULTA stock is trading 2.9% below its 52-week high of $491.98 attained on May 30, 2025. Technical indicators show the company’s strong performance. The stock is trading above its 50 and 200-day SMA (simple moving average) of $433.08 and $395.59, respectively, highlighting a continued uptrend. This technical strength, along with sustained momentum, indicates positive market sentiment and investors’ confidence in ULTA’s financial health and growth prospects.ULTA Trades Above 50 and 200-Day Moving AverageImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchIs ULTA a Value Play Stock?Ulta Beauty currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 19.57 compared with the industry average of 17.94. This valuation places the stock at a premium relative to peers, reflecting broader market expectations around its business stability and ability to navigate current cost and demand dynamics.ULTA P/E Ratio (Forward 12 Months)Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDownward Estimate Revisions Reflect Cautious Sentiment on ULTAReflecting cautious sentiment around Ulta Beauty, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS has seen downward revisions. Over the past seven days, the consensus estimates for the current quarter and fiscal year have declined 4 cents to $4.87 and 16 cents to $23.39 per share, respectively. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchTop Three PicksEuropean Wax Center, Inc. EWCZ functions as the franchisor and operator of out-of-home waxing services in the United States, currently holding a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for European Wax Center’s current fiscal-year earnings indicates a rise of 35.6% from the year-ago period’s levels. EWCZ delivered an earnings surprise of 186.9% in the last reported quarter.Stitch Fix, Inc. SFIX sells a range of apparel, shoes and accessories for women's, petite, maternity, men's, plus and kids through its website and mobile application in the United States, currently holding a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). SFIX delivered an average earnings surprise of 51.4% in the trailing four quarters.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Stitch Fix’s current fiscal-year earnings indicates growth of 71.7% from the year-ago figure.Canada Goose Holdings Inc. GOOS designs, manufactures and sells performance luxury apparel for men, women, youth, children and babies. It carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. GOOS delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 57.2%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Canada Goose’s current fiscal-year earnings implies growth of 10%, from the year-ago actuals. 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.5% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA): Free Stock Analysis Report Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS): Free Stock Analysis Report Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX): Free Stock Analysis Report European Wax Center, Inc. (EWCZ): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks