United Airlines to Report Q2 Earnings: Is a Beat in Store for the Stock?

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 16, after market close.United Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average beat of 10.34%. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news)Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchLet’s see how things have shaped up for United Airlines this earnings season.Factors Likely to Have Influenced UAL's Q2 PerformanceThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for UAL’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 1.57% in the past 60 days to $3.75 per share. Moreover, the consensus mark implies a 9.42% downside from the year-ago actual. The consensus estimate lies within the company provided guided range of $3.25-$4.25.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchUAL is likely to have been hurt by the tariff-induced challenging macroeconomic backdrop. We expect geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures, and persistent inflation to weigh on UAL’s operations and weaken travel demand. The ongoing economic uncertainties and the resultant reduction in consumer and corporate confidence are likely to have hurt the domestic air travel demand.Labor costs are also likely to have been high, which would have hurt the company’s bottom-line performance in the June quarter. Despite costs on aircraft fuel decreasing year over year, UAL expects to continue experiencing increased cost pressure from the labor agreements. We expect operating costs to increase 8.8% in second-quarter 2025 from second-quarter 2024 actuals, led by the 10.5% rise in salaries and related costs.Delivery delays from Airbus and Boeing are expected to limit capacity growth going forward. Capacity reductions, particularly in its domestic and Atlantic markets, will hurt both revenue and profitability.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UAL’s second-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $15.31 billion, indicating 2.17% growth year over year. The top line is likely to have been aided by improving travel demand and lower fuel prices.Notably, the southward movement of oil prices bodes well for the industry participants. This is because fuel expenses are a significant input cost for the aviation industry. Crude oil is struggling in 2025, with prices sliding to multi-month lows. Tariff concerns, weakening consumer confidence, and the production increase by OPEC+ have all contributed to this downward pressure. Oil prices decreased 6% in the April-June 2025 period and are down 9% from the beginning of 2025 to date.What Our Model Says About UALOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for United Airlines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.United Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +3.43% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.United Airlines Holdings Inc Price and EPS Surprise United Airlines Holdings Inc price-eps-surprise | United Airlines Holdings Inc QuoteHighlights of UAL's Q1 EarningsUAL's first-quarter 2025 earnings per share (excluding 25 cents from non-recurring items) of 91 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 75 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the Chicago-based airline reported a loss of 15 cents per share. The earnings beat and the year-over-year bottom-line improvement, despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, pleased investors.  Management stated that this was the best first-quarter financial performance of UAL in five years.Operating revenues of $13.21 billion fell marginally short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.22 billion and increased 5.4% year over year.Other Stocks to ConsiderHere are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.SkyWest, Inc.SKYW has an Earnings ESP of +3.06% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. SKYW is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 24. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.SkyWest, founded in 1972, is based in St. George and operates regional jets for major U.S. airlines. SKYW is the holding company for SkyWest Airlines, SkyWest Charter and SkyWest Leasing, an aircraft leasing company.SKYW has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 17.1%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SKYW’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.30% upward in the past 60 days. SKYW’s second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 28.5% year over year. Alaska Air Group Inc. ALK has an Earnings ESP of +3.01% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. ALK is scheduled to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 23.  ALK’s second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to decline 38.43% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALK’s second-quarter 2025 earnings has remained unchanged at $1.57 per share in the past 60 days. ALK’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), the average beat being 27.44%.Higher. Faster. Sooner. Buy These Stocks NowA small number of stocks are primed for a breakout, and you have a chance to get in before they take off.At any given time, there are only 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. On average, this list more than doubles the S&P 500. We’ve combed through the latest Strong Buys and selected 7 compelling companies likely to jump sooner and climb higher than any other stock you could buy this month.You'll learn everything you need to know about these exciting trades in our brand-new Special Report, 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days.Download the report free now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL): Free Stock Analysis Report Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK): Free Stock Analysis Report SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks