Bitcoin enters ‘acceleration phase’ resembling BTC price gains seen after Trump election victory
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Key takeaways: The Bitcoin Quantile Model shows “heat” with price on the verge of an “acceleration phase,” echoing Q4 2024 when BTC embarked on a 45% post-election rally.Bitcoin (BTC) price has formed a new intraday high on each daily candle this week, with the crypto asset slowly grinding toward a new all-time high. In line with its current trajectory, 21st Capital co-founder Sina noted that Bitcoin is approaching a pivotal moment around the $108,000 level. The Bitcoin Quantile Model update shows that BTC’s market reflects the same “heat” that was present after President Trump’s post-election rally and the spot ETF-driven highs during Q4 2024. The model, which uses quantile regression to map Bitcoin’s price phases on a logarithmic scale, indicates the cryptocurrency is in the Transition Zone, a critical juncture before the Acceleration Phase. Throughout Q4, 2024, Bitcoin rallied by 45% after entering a price discovery period above $74,500. Bitcoin Quantile Model. Source: X.comAs illustrated in the chart, once it breaks into the "Acceleration" Phase, it could trigger BTC’s next leg or the mid-phase, typically between the 33% and 66% range. Based on the model, BTC is expected to progressively target price levels of $130,000 and $163,000 in the coming months. However, anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 believed a price target above $200,000 is a “reasonable” expectation for 2025. Basing the projection on Bitcoin’s “power curve,” the analyst noted that BTC’s position relative to gold has significantly improved since April. From a technical standpoint, this view is supported by the recent convergence of the Sharpe ratios for Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that the two hard assets now offer comparable risk-to-reward profiles to their investors. Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer shed light on this development, recommending a 4:1 goal-to-Bitcoin ratio from an allocation perspective. Related: Bitcoin 'blow-off top' set at $128K with new all-time highs in sightStrong Bitcoin volumes “final straw” before new highs Crypto researcher Aylo analyzed BTC’s historical price action when the crypto asset consolidates near its all-time high level. In an X post, the analyst explained, “The data shows when BTC gets close to its previous ATH during a strong, accelerating trend with high momentum, it has historically broken out to new ATHs within a short time (days to weeks).”However, weaker trends have led to stalls or retraces between March and May 2024. Currently, Bitcoin exhibits a strong trend but lacks the necessary trading volume, which remains the final straw to confirm a breakout, a factor that could delay upward movement.Alyo added that for Bitcoin to break its all-time highs, daily trading volume should exceed the previous 10 days, be at least 1.5 times the 20-day average, and ideally sustain a 3-day increase while the price holds steady or rises.Data from CryptoQuant has reinforced Aylo’s concerns about trading volume. On May 21, retail investor demand for Bitcoin, defined as wallets buying/selling between $0 and $10,000, remained low at just 3.2% over 30 days, despite BTC trading within $2,000 of its all-time high.Bitcoin’s retail investor volumes. Source: CryptoQuantFor comparison, bullish retail demand accounted for approximately 30% in December 2024—nearly 10 times higher than current levels—even though Bitcoin was well below, at a price range of $96,000 to $97,000.Related: How high can Bitcoin price go?This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Cointelegraph Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Cointelegraph Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Cointelegraph
Quelle: Cointelegraph