Altria (MO) Up 7.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Altria (MO). Shares have added about 7.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Altria due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.Altria Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, FY25 EPS Guidance NarrowedAltria posted second-quarter 2025 results, wherein both top and bottom lines beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased year over year.The company's continued progress toward its long-term vision in the second quarter, supported by the strength of the core businesses. Growth in the oral tobacco segment was driven primarily by strong performance from the on! brand. Moreover, the company narrowed its full-year 2025 adjusted earnings guidance.Altria’s second-quarter adjusted earnings were $1.44 per share, which advanced 8.3% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37. This upside was driven by reduced shares outstanding and increased adjusted operating companies' income (“OCI”).The company posted net revenues of $6,102 million, which declined 1.7% year over year. This was due to a decrease in net revenues in the smokeable products segment, partially offset by an increase in net revenues in the oral tobacco products segment. Revenues, net of excise taxes, increased 0.2% to $5,290 million. The top line beat the consensus mark, which was pegged at $5,190 million.Decoding Altria’s Segment-Wise ResultsSmokeable Products: Net revenues in the category fell 2.5% year over year to $5,357 million due to reduced shipment volume. These were somewhat offset by higher pricing. Revenues, net of excise taxes, fell 0.4%.Domestic cigarette shipment volumes tumbled 10.2% due to the industry’s decline rate and retail share losses. The industry’s decline was a result of the continued growth of flavored disposable e-vapor products and persistent discretionary income challenges for Adult Tobacco Consumers (“ATC”). Altria’s reported cigar shipment volumes increased 3.7%. Adjusted OCI in the segment jumped 4.2% to $2,947 million due to improved pricing, reduced per-unit settlement charges and lower costs. This was somewhat negated by reduced shipment volume. The adjusted OCI margins grew 2.9 percentage points to 64.5%.Oral Tobacco Products: Net revenues of the segment rose 5.9% to $753 million. The upside was primarily driven by higher pricing, although this was partially offset by an increased percentage of on! shipment volume compared with the MST year over year (mix change) and the reduced shipment volume. Revenues excluding excise taxes rose 6%.Domestic shipment volumes fell 1%, due to retail share losses and other factors. This was partly negated by the industry’s growth rate and trade inventory movements. Adjusted OCI in the segment increased 10.9%, driven by increased pricing and lower costs, partially offset by a change in mix and a decline in shipment volumes. The adjusted OCI margin grew 3.1 percentage points to 68.7%.Altria Stock: Other UpdatesThe company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1,287 million, long-term debt of $23,651 million and a total stockholders’ deficit of $3,256 million.In the second quarter of 2025, the company bought back 4.7 million shares, totaling $274 million. As of June 30, 2025, $400 million remained under its $1 billion authorized share repurchase program, which is likely to be completed by Dec. 31, 2025. Altria paid dividends worth $1.7 billion in the second quarter.What to Expect From Altria in 2025The company now expects 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $5.35 to $5.45, indicating year-over-year growth of 3% to 5% from a base of $5.19 in 2024. Earlier, the metric was expected in the $5.30-$5.45 per share range, implying 2-5% growth. The guidance also indicates the absence of the prior year’s one-time benefit from the expiration of the Master Settlement Agreement legal fund in the fourth quarter of 2024.The company’s 2025 guidance implies the currently estimated cost impact of increased tariffs, based on the most recent available information. It also assumes minimal disruption to combustible and e-vapor product volumes from ongoing enforcement actions targeting the illicit e-vapor market. In addition, the guidance range factors in the reinvestment of expected cost savings from the Optimize & Accelerate initiative, along with lower forecasted net periodic benefit income. As the external landscape remains dynamic, Altria continues assessing economic factors like inflation and tariffs, ATC dynamics (such as purchasing patterns and the adoption of smoke-free products), illegal e-vapor enforcement and regulatory developments. The bottom-line view also considers planned investments associated with enhanced smoke-free product research, development and marketplace activities to support MO’s smoke-free products.Altria continues to expect a 2025 adjusted effective tax rate of 23-24%, capital expenditures of $175-$225 million, and depreciation and amortization expenses of approximately $290 million.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.VGM ScoresAt this time, Altria has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Altria has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Performance of an Industry PlayerAltria belongs to the Zacks Tobacco industry. Another stock from the same industry, Philip Morris (PM), has gained 1.1% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2025.Philip Morris reported revenues of $10.14 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.1%. EPS of $1.91 for the same period compares with $1.59 a year ago.Philip Morris is expected to post earnings of $2.10 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +10%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Philip Morris. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockThis under-the-radar company specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. And it's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $971 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Altria Group, Inc. (MO): Free Stock Analysis Report Philip Morris International Inc. (PM): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks