LCID Shares Fall More Than 60% in a Year: How to Play Now

After a punishing year, Lucid Group LCID trades at a discount to peers while fundamentals remain mixed. The Gravity SUV is improving mix, but margins and cash burn still weigh.  Management’s execution on deliveries, costs, and capital will dictate whether the gap to peers narrows in 2026.Where LCID Stock Stands NowLCID stock has fallen more than 60% over the past twelve months, trailing the industry and the broader sector, which rose roughly 15% and 12%, respectively. The S&P 500 advanced about 20% in that span.1 Year Price Performance Comparison Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDespite the drawdown, the demand backdrop isn’t uniformly weak. Deliveries have set eight straight quarterly records through the fourth quarter of 2025, with the Gravity SUV lifting average selling prices and becoming the majority of production in late 2025. Even so, deep negative margins, supply-chain costs, and tariffs kept profitability under pressure.On liquidity, a larger delayed-draw term loan facility and a strategic investment bolstered the cash runway into the first half of 2027, providing time for Gravity and the midsize program to scale.Valuation Framework And TargetLCID sits at roughly 1.57x forward twelve-month sales, a notable discount to 3.28x for the sub-industry, 1.72x for the sector, and 5.25x for the S&P 500. Over five years, LCID’s forward sales multiple has ranged from 17.8x to 1.4x, with a 6.49x median. Today’s level embeds considerable execution risk but also leaves room if revenue ramps and losses narrow.Our 6-12 month price target sits at $12, which equates to about 1.71x forward sales—modestly above the current multiple and consistent with expectations that Gravity mix and delivery growth continue while profitability remains constrained.Lucid’s Rank & EstimatesLucid currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) with a VGM Score of F. That blend typically favors underperformance over a one- to three-month horizon, especially when estimate trends and operating metrics are moving the wrong way. Recent results featured a wider quarterly loss than consensus and continued negative free cash flow.Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for LCID’s loss per share has widened over the past 60 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat Could Shift The Risk RewardTwo drivers could improve the setup: sustained delivery growth and a continued Gravity-led mix.Lucid’s deliveries reached 15,841 vehicles in 2025, up 55% year over year. Meanwhile, close peers like Tesla TSLA and Rivian RIVN witnessed declines. Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, down from 51,579 in 2024, and produced 42,284 units compared with 49,476 a year earlier. As for Tesla, it delivered over 1,635,000 vehicles in 2025 versus more than 1,789,000 units in 2024.Lucid expects a revenue step-up through 2026 as Gravity and broader trims expand the addressable market. The upcoming Atlas powertrain and an autonomy roadmap—including collaborations aimed at Level 4 capabilities—could help unit economics and product appeal if executed on schedule. Collaboration with Nuro and Uber for robotaxi also instils optimism.   The swing factors remain profitability and cash generation. GAAP gross margins are still deeply negative, pressured by tariffs and input costs, while investment needs for R&D, marketing, autonomy, and the midsize platform keep free cash flow in the red. Any tangible progress on cost per unit, capex discipline, or tariff relief would be meaningful for the multiple.Investor TakeawayAfter a 63% slide over the past year, LCID is still inexpensive on sales, yet the Zacks Rank and Style Scores argue for caution into the next catalyst.LCID is set to report Q4'25 results on Feb. 24, 2026, and the company currently carries a Earnings ESP of +1.26%. Gravity ramp up, and delivery/production and capex commentary will be focal points.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Research Chief Names "Single Best Pick to Double"From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all.This company targets millennial and Gen Z audiences, generating nearly $1 billion in revenue last quarter alone. A recent pullback makes now an ideal time to jump aboard. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID): Free Stock Analysis Report Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks