Moderna Sharpens Pipeline Focus as COVID-19 Vaccine Demand Ebbs in Q1

Moderna MRNA kicked off 2025 with mixed first-quarter results. While its streamlining efforts improved bottom-line numbers, the steep decline in revenues raises concerns.While sales of its COVID-19 vaccine continue to decline as expected in a post-pandemic market, Moderna is taking proactive steps to reshape its future. The company is swiftly advancing multiple pipeline candidates across late-stage development, with the intent to diversify its existing revenue base and launch multiple new products over the next few years.Year to date, shares of Moderna have plunged 33% compared with the industry’s decline of 2%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchSoft Sales Performance of Moderna’s Marketed ProductsThe company currently has two marketed vaccines in its portfolio — the COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax and the recently launched RSV vaccine mResvia. Overall product sales declined nearly 50% year over year in first-quarter 2025 to $86 million, the vast majority of which came from the COVID-19 vaccine. This metric missed both the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $114 million and our model estimate of $122 million.The company recorded $84 million from Spikevax sales during the quarter. The figure missed our model estimate of $112 million. This soft sales performance was due to lower vaccine demand in the post-pandemic era.mResvia sales during the quarter totaled $2 million, which significantly missed our model estimate of $70 million. This miss was likely due to the vaccine being approved and recommended later in the contracting season. By that time, many customers had already completed their orders.Notably, RSV vaccine sales have been weak across the industry for the 2024-25 vaccination season due to the restrictive recommendation issued by the U.S. CDC last year for individuals in the 60-74 age bracket. Sales of RSV vaccines marketed by Moderna’s rivals, Pfizer PFE and GSK plc GSK, also declined in the first quarter. While sales of Pfizer’s RSV vaccine Abrysvo fell 9% year over year to $131 million, GSK’s Arexvy sales plunged 57% to £78 million (~$98 million).Cost Cuts in Focus Amid MRNA’s Streamlining EffortsWhile Moderna maintained its guidance for 2025, it expanded its cost efficiency and prioritization programs to improve long-term profitability. Based on these cost-saving activities, it intends to save about $300-$500 million in operating expenses next year. MRNA expects to incur $4.7-$5.0 billion in operating costs in 2027, signaling a reduction of $1.4-$1.7 billion when compared to 2025 estimates.This marks the third consecutive quarter when Moderna reduced operating costs by ‘double digits year-over-year.’ Through these cuts, the company expects to break even on an operating cash cost basis by 2028.Moderna’s Encouraging Upcoming Product LaunchesA major reason behind undertaking restructuring programs is to focus on products that are either nearing approvals or already on the market. Moderna expects to launch 10 new products over the next three years to reduce reliance on Spikevax as a primary revenue driver.Toward the end of last year, the company submitted three regulatory filings to the FDA. These included a fresh filing seeking approval for mRNA-1283 (the next-generation COVID-19 vaccine) and a regulatory filing seeking label expansion for mResvia in high-risk adults aged 18-59. While a final decision on mRNA-1283 is expected by this month’s end, the agency’s decision on mResvia is expected by June 12.Moderna also submitted a third filing that seeks approval for the company’s COVID-19 and influenza combination vaccine, mRNA-1083. However, it received the FDA’s feedback asking for ‘Phase 3 flu efficacy data.’ Such setbacks not only prolong the review timeline but could also delay the company’s initial launch plans for the vaccine.MRNA’s Pipeline Progress Holds PotentialThe company is also progressing well with the development of its pipeline candidates. Unlike traditional vaccines that can take months to produce, mRNA-based vaccines can be developed quickly and offer manufacturing scalability. This major advantage has been a plus point for Moderna and Pfizer, which have been able to update their mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines against the latest variants at record time, especially when compared to traditional vaccine-makers.Moderna has more than 40 mRNA-based investigational candidates in different stages of clinical studies, targeting various indications, including cancer. The company is evaluating multiple candidates in late-stage studies — mRNA-1647 (cytomegalovirus [CMV] vaccine), mRNA-1010 (influenza vaccine), and the cancer therapy intismeran autogene (formerly, mRNA-4157/V940).Intismeran is an important candidate garnering investors’ attention. It is being developed in partnership with Merck MRK. Moderna/Merck is evaluating this therapy in three pivotal late-stage studies — one in the melanoma indication and the other two in the non-small cell lung cancer area. Moderna and Merck have also started three mid-stage studies evaluating the therapy across cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, renal cell carcinoma and muscle-invasive bladder cancer indications.The company also announced that it is expanding its oncology pipeline with the addition of mRNA-4359, an investigational checkpoint adaptive immune modulation therapy. mRNA-4359 is currently being evaluated in early-to-mid-stage clinical studies for first-line melanoma and first-line metastatic NSCLC.ConclusionWhile the pressure of declining revenues is concerning, Moderna’s encouraging commercial launch plans and a robust pipeline of mRNA-based therapies indicate that the company is actively positioning itself for long-term growth beyond the COVID-19 era. The upcoming product rollouts could help Moderna transition into a biotech company with a diversified revenue stream.Moderna, Inc. Price Moderna, Inc. price | Moderna, Inc. QuoteMRNA’s Zacks RankModerna currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is among the most innovative financial firms. With a fast-growing customer base (already 50+ million) and a diverse set of cutting edge solutions, this stock is poised for big gains. Of course, all our elite picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks’ Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report GSK PLC Sponsored ADR (GSK): Free Stock Analysis Report Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): Free Stock Analysis Report Moderna, Inc. (MRNA): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks