Steven Madden (SHOO) Up 12.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Steven Madden (SHOO). Shares have added about 12.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Steven Madden due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Steven Madden, Ltd. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.Steven Madden's Q3 Earnings Lag EstimatesSteven Madden reported third-quarter 2025 results, wherein the top and bottom lines lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Total revenues increased, while earnings decreased from the year-ago period.Steven Madden’s Quarterly Performance: Key InsightsSHOO posted adjusted quarterly earnings of 43 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents. The metric plummeted 52.7% from 91 cents in the prior-year period.Total revenues rose 6.9% year over year to $667.9 million. Net sales of $664.2 million grew 6.9%, and licensing fee income of $3.7 million increased 4.9% from the year-ago period. The top line missed the consensus estimate of $699 million.Adjusted gross profit rose 11.6% year over year to $289.7 million, which surpassed our estimate of $278.5 million. We note that the adjusted gross margin expanded 180 basis points (bps) to 43.4%.The company’s adjusted operating expenses increased 39.7% year over year to $243.4 million. Our estimate for the metric was $238.9 million. As a percentage of revenues, adjusted operating expenses increased 850 bps year over year to 36.4%.Steven Madden reported an adjusted operating income of $46.3 million, down 45.8% from the prior-year quarter. The adjusted operating margin decreased 680 bps to 6.9%. We expected an adjusted operating margin of 5.7% for the quarter.SHOO’s Segmental Performance in Q3In the third quarter of 2025, wholesale revenues totaled $442.7 million, representing a 10.7% decline from the year-ago period. When excluding the recently acquired Kurt Geiger business, wholesale revenues decreased by 19% year over year.Within the wholesale segment, footwear revenues were down 10.9%, or 16.7% excluding Kurt Geiger, while accessories and apparel revenues declined 10.3%, or 22.5% excluding Kurt Geiger. The adjusted gross margin in this segment was 33.6%, down 190 basis points year over year, primarily due to the impact of recently implemented tariffs on products imported into the United States.Direct-to-consumer revenues for the quarter were $221.5 million, up 76.6% year over year. Excluding Kurt Geiger, direct-to-consumer sales grew 1.5%. The adjusted gross margin was 61.9%, down 290 basis points year over year, reflecting the effect of new import tariffs and the addition of the Kurt Geiger concessions business.SHOO’s Financial Health SnapshotSteven Madden ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $108.7 million, short-term investments of $0.1 million and stockholders’ equity of $886.1 million, including non-controlling interest of $35.3 million. The capital expenditure in the third quarter was $11.6 million.In the third quarter, the company did not repurchase any shares of its common stock in the open market.SHOO announced a cash dividend of 21 cents per share, payable Dec. 26, 2025, to its shareholders of record as of Dec. 15.SHOO’s Q4 OutlookLooking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, the company expects revenues to rise 27% to 30% year over year. EPS is forecast to be between 30 cents and 35 cents, and adjusted EPS is expected to range from 41 cents to 46 cents.The contribution from Kurt Geiger is forecasted to range between $182 million and $187 million in revenues for the fourth quarter, with approximately $135 million derived from its direct-to-consumer operations, which represent over 70% of the brand’s total sales mix. This higher DTC weighting is expected to have a favorable impact on the company’s overall gross margin.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.The consensus estimate has shifted 66.67% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Steven Madden has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock has a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Steven Madden has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.Performance of an Industry PlayerSteven Madden belongs to the Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry. Another stock from the same industry, Carter's (CRI), has gained 0.4% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.Carter's reported revenues of $757.84 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.1%. EPS of $0.74 for the same period compares with $1.64 a year ago.Carter's is expected to post earnings of $1.48 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -38.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.9%.The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Carter's. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.Quantum Computing Stocks Set To SoarArtificial intelligence has already reshaped the investment landscape, and its convergence with quantum computing could lead to the most significant wealth-building opportunities of our time.Today, you have a chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this technological revolution. In our urgent special report, Beyond AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Power, you'll discover the little-known stocks we believe will win the quantum computing race and deliver massive gains to early investors.Access the Report Free Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO): Free Stock Analysis Report Carter's, Inc. (CRI): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks