The J.M. Smucker Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: Key Insights for Investors

The J. M. Smucker Company SJM is likely to witness a top and bottom-line decline when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on June 10. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.19 billion, indicating a 0.8% drop from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at $2.25 per share, which implies a 15.4% decrease from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. SJM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.7%, on average. (Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.)The J. M. Smucker Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise The J. M. Smucker Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The J. M. Smucker Company QuoteKey Factors to Watch Ahead of SJM’s Q4 ResultsThe J.M. Smucker has been navigating a challenging consumer landscape marked by inflationary pressures and reduced discretionary spending, which continue to reshape purchasing behavior. These shifting dynamics are particularly impacting categories like sweet baked goods, where recovery has been slower than anticipated. Notably, management lowered its expectations for the sweet baked snacks business in the fiscal fourth quarter, as disclosed during the third-quarter earnings call, raising concerns about the company’s near-term performance.SJM has been incurring high selling, distribution and administrative (SD&A) costs. The company expects SD&A expenses to increase roughly 8% in fiscal 2025, indicating higher marketing investments. While these efforts are crucial for sustaining brand engagement and long-term equity, the disproportionate rise in SD&A relative to revenues introduces margin risks.On the last earnings call, management also indicated that the coffee segment might encounter its highest cost basket in the fiscal fourth quarter. Although performance in the fiscal third quarter exceeded expectations, margin compression is anticipated in the fiscal fourth quarter, as pricing actions might not fully offset the impact of commodity inflation and elasticity pressures. These conditions have heightened the risk for SJM’s to-be-reported quarter.However, the resilience of its categories and the effective execution of key growth strategies have been aiding amid a dynamic landscape. SJM’s strategic priorities include focusing on growing volume and net sales, operating with excellence and prioritizing resources to capitalize on the fastest growth opportunities. The company concentrates on integrating and delivering on the acquired Hostess Brands business. Solid execution of these initiatives is likely to have supported performance in the to-be-reported quarter.Earnings Whispers for SJM StockOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for The J. M. Smucker this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here. The J. M. Smucker has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.30% at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Other Stocks With the Favorable CombinationHere are some other companies which, according to our model, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:The Hershey Company HSY currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.16% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The consensus mark for Hershey’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.5 billion, which indicates an increase of 20.03% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hershey’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 99 cents, indicating a 22.1% decline from the year-ago period. HSY delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.6%, on average.Mondelez International, Inc. MDLZ currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports second-quarter 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mondelez’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $8.9 billion, which indicates an increase of 6.1% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mondelez’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 68 cents, indicating a 20.9% decline from the year-ago period. MDLZ delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.8%, on average.MGP Ingredients, Inc. MGPI currently has an Earnings ESP of +9.95% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a decline in both top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGP Ingredients’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $137.8 million, which indicates a decrease of 27.8% from the prior-year quarter.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGP Ingredients’ quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 64 cents, down 62.6% from the year-ago period. MGPI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.5%, on average.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.5% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Hershey Company (The) (HSY): Free Stock Analysis Report The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM): Free Stock Analysis Report Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ): Free Stock Analysis Report MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks