US consumer prospects darken as earners at both ends of the income spectrum send clear negative signals--Bain/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes

BOSTON, Sept. 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Prospects for the US consumer are deteriorating as earners at both ends of America's income spectrum send clear negative signals this month over the outlook for their spending, aggravating the risks of a downturn ahead for US consumer demand, the latest results of the Bain & Company/Dynata Consumer Health Indexes (CHI) for September indicate.

The latest adverse findings from this month's indexes come on the heels of August's CHI data, which reported a souring mood among US households of all incomes, casting a further shadow over conditions for the US consumer.

The CHI headline outlook gauge for consumer prospects across all US income groups fell further this month, dropping into clearly negative territory with a reading of 98.8, down from August's 100.2 and July's level of 101.0, underlining the darkening mood among American earners and the increased fragility of consumer sentiment.

The outlook gauge for lower-income Americans (earning below $50,000 per year) fell for a fourth month in a row, dropping to 94.7 for this month, down sharply from a reading of 96.4 in August, and extending its decline to mark a third consecutive month near the low end of its range for the past year, at levels not seen since early 2021, during the Covid pandemic.

The continuing deterioration in the outlook gauge for lower-income US households adds to mounting evidence from the CHI data of weakness in the job market impacting the group. In June and July, this series accurately predicted a downturn in the US labor market, later confirmed by negative revisions to the official data for US payrolls, while August's CHI report signalled more pain to come – and was validated by the month's official payrolls report.

This month's outlook readings for lower-income earners signal a continuing negative trend and point to the job market for lower-income Americans weakening still further, the Bain/Dynata report warns. Alongside, spending intentions among the lower-income group are also falling, with the CHI gauge of these dropping 1.8 points, to 97.2 in September.

At the same time, at the other end of America's income scale, the CHI outlook score for upper-income consumers (earning more than $100,000 per year) also fell for a second consecutive month in September, dropping 2.1 points to 102.2, in the wake of a 1.3-point decline in August. The trend opens a gap among upper-income Americans between their expectations of future investment returns and actual stock market performance, coming despite equity markets continuing to hit all-time highs in the past two months.

Meanwhile, the momentum of the CHI's gauge of spending intentions for upper-income households has also reversed as the economic mood darkens among these better-off Americans. While spending intent for the group remains in positive territory overall, the CHI reading for this tumbled by 5.4 points this month, to 107.7. Favorable momentum in this gauge that was emerging between May and August, when it gained 7 points, has dissipated, signalling further adverse implications for upper-income spending should markets end their current march higher.

"Our CHI data is unambiguously negative this month. We're seeing negative shifts across many of our data series. The data for lower-income earners, notably their outlook score, which is a read on those households' view of their income prospects and, by extension, of the job market, indicates they are clearly facing bleak prospects. And for the second straight month they're telling us that they intend to spend less," Brian Stobie, vice president in Bain & Company's Macro Trends Group, said.

"At the same time, upper-income Americans are souring on expectations of future investment portfolio returns even as markets hit all-time highs, which is a rare signal from our data series. And despite record stock markets, these higher earners are growing less and less enthusiastic about spending. Given that upper-income earners account for the bulk of discretionary household spending, this has clear implications for consumer demand. Last month, we warned that businesses should consider negative scenarios for the consumer outlook. We strongly reiterate that this month as weakness among lower-income households worsens and is now more apparent among upper-income consumers, too."

For more details and the full report (PDF), please click here or get in touch with the media contacts below.

Media contacts 
For any questions or to arrange an interview, please contact:
Gary Duncan (London) – Email: gary.duncan@bain.com
Amanda Folsom (Boston) – Email: amanda.folsom@bain.com

About Bain & Company
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About Dynata
Dynata is the world's largest first-party data company for insights, activation, and measurement. With a reach that encompasses 70 million consumers and business professionals globally and an extensive library of individual profile attributes collected through surveys, Dynata is the cornerstone for precise, trustworthy quality data. The company has built innovative data services and solutions around its robust first-party data offering to bring the voice of the customer to the entire marketing continuum — from uncovering insights to activating campaigns and measuring cross-channel marketing return on investment. Dynata serves more than 6,000 market research, media and advertising agencies, publishers, consulting and investment firms, and corporate customers in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Learn more at www.dynata.com

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