Heritage Insurance Skyrockets 136% YTD: Time to Buy the Stock?

Shares of Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. HRTG have skyrocketed 136% year to date, outperforming the industry’s increase of 12%, the Finance sector’s rise of 15% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s gain of 18.9% in the said time frame. This super-regional U.S. property and casualty insurance holding company is well-positioned to benefit from prudent underwriting execution and rate adequacy initiatives implemented over the past three years.HRTG vs Industry, Sector, S&P 500 YTDImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchIts peer HCI Group Inc. HCI, a Florida-based company with operations in property and casualty insurance, information technology services, insurance management, real estate and reinsurance, has gained 50.8% in the past three months, while another peer Universal Insurance Holdings UVE, operating as an integrated insurance holding company in the United States, has gained 55.4% in the same time frame.What’s Driving HRTG?Heritage Insurance is intensifying its focus on profitability by prioritizing rate adequacy, disciplined underwriting and cautious expansion in markets that are either saturated or generating weak returns. Confronted with subpar performance and a challenging reinsurance landscape, the company halted the issuance of new personal lines policies in Florida and the Northeast in December 2022. Recent improvements—most notably legislative reforms in Florida and more predictable reinsurance pricing—have created a more constructive operating environment. As a result, Heritage has resumed writing personal lines business, though it continues to pursue growth selectively and deliberately.Heritage remains focused on re-entering profitable markets in a measured way while allocating capital with strict discipline to preserve margins. Its strategy focuses on sustaining rate adequacy, utilizing advanced data analytics to monitor and manage exposures, and leveraging its operating infrastructure to support steady, long-term growth. Heritage anticipates that its in-force policy count will rise gradually through 2025 and 2026.To prudently manage its overall risk profile, Heritage has broadened its geographic footprint, improved risk diversification, moderated claimsvolatility and reduced reinsurance expenses. As of Sept. 30, 2025, approximately 71.1% of total insured value (TIV) was located outside Florida and 70.6% was spread beyond the broader Southeast region. This expanded distribution reflects meaningful exposure across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, West and Pacific regions.The company’s excess and surplus (E&S) segment remains a key contributor to growth, supported by continued expansion into additional states. Heritage’s reinsurance program offers strong protection against hurricanes and severe weather, and efficiency improvements are expected to bring down the ceded premium ratio as gross premiums rise. The company has also finalized its 2025–2026 indemnity-based catastrophe excess-of-loss reinsurance placement.Complementing these efforts are targeted technology investments, including Guidewire Cloud, predictive modeling, advanced pricing analytics, a strategic partnership with Slide, and cloud-based claims tools. These initiatives enhance underwriting precision, improve claims performance, and strengthen Heritage’s competitive position.Estimate Revision TrendThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for HRTG’s 2025 and 2026 earnings has moved 25.4% and 6%, north in the past 30 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe consensus estimate for HCI Group’s 2025 and 2026 earnings has witnessed northward movement in the past 30 days. Estimates for Universal Insurance Holdings witnessed no movement in the same time frame.Optimistic Growth Estimates for HRTGThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2025 earnings indicates a 155.7% year-over-year increase but that for 2026 suggests a 14.3% year-over-year decrease. However, HRTG has a Growth Score of A.HRTG’s Favorable Return on CapitalReturn on equity in the trailing 12 months was 41.4% higher than the industry average of 8%. Return on equity, a profitability measure, reflects how effectively a company is utilizing its shareholders' equity.Its return on invested capital (ROIC) has been increasing for quite some time. This reflects HRTG’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 31.3%, higher than the industry average of 6.2%.HRTG Shares Are ExpensiveThe stock is overvalued compared to its industry. It is currently trading at a price-to-book multiple of 2.03, higher than the industry average of 1.54. But it has a Value Score of A. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHRTG is cheaper than HCI Group but expensive when compared with Universal Insurance Holdings.How to Play HRTG StockA strengthening commercial residential segment, expanded personal lines capacity, improved E&S performance, better pricing, rising revenues, margin expansion and solid earnings support HRTG’s growth outlook. With a VGM Score of A and a strategy centered on faster expansion, optimism is warranted. The average $35.50 target implies about 22% upside from yesterday’s close for investors now overall.Thus, despite its premium valuation and exposure concentration in high-risk-prone regions, it is wise to add this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) insurer. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report HCI Group, Inc. (HCI): Free Stock Analysis Report Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG): Free Stock Analysis Report UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC (UVE): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks