Is Progressive Corp. Poised for an Earnings Beat This Q3?

The Progressive Corporation PGR is expected to report an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Oct 15, before the opening bell.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $22.3 billion, indicating 14.9% growth from the year-ago reported figure.The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $5.00 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s third-quarter earnings has moved up two cents in the past seven days. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 39.7%.  Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDecent Earnings Surprise HistoryProgressive’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing in one, the average surprise being 8.23% This is depicted in the following chart.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat the Zacks Model Unveils for PGROur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Earnings ESP: PGR has an Earnings ESP of +2.33%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $5.12 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.00. The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise The Progressive Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Progressive Corporation QuoteZacks Rank: PGR carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.(Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)Factors Likely to Shape Q3 ResultsAn increase in premiums, higher net investment income and fees and service revenues are likely to have favored revenues in the third quarter. The quarterly results are likely to benefit from improved personal auto products as well as commercial lines.A compelling product portfolio, leadership position, strength in the Vehicle and Property businesses, healthy policies in force and solid retention are likely to have aided net premiums earned. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $21.1 billion, up 15.3% from the year-ago reported number.   The personal auto business is likely to have benefited from personal auto products and new and renewal application growth, which is expected to have been mainly attributable to increased advertising spend, competitively priced products and the agency incentive compensation programs. Both agency and direct auto channels are likely to have driven policy growth. The consensus estimate for personal auto policies in force is pegged at 25.3 million.A larger invested asset base is likely to have aided improvement in net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $914 million, up 23.5% from the year-ago reported number.  The insurer is likely to have benefited from pretax net realized gains on securities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $135 million.  Higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses are likely to have increased expenses.  The consensus mark for expense ratio is pegged at 29.8.The third quarter escaped the brutality of catastrophic events, which is likely to benefit underwriting results. This, coupled with prudent underwriting, is likely to have aided improvement in the combined ratio. The consensus mark for the combined ratio is pegged at 77.Other Stocks to ConsiderSome other P&C insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF has an Earnings ESP of +9.57% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.79 per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 26.1%CINF’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one. The Travelers Companies TRV has an Earnings ESP of +4.92% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $5.56 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 6.1%.TRV’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quartersChubb Limited CB has an Earnings ESP of +8.57% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $5.67 per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 0.9%.CB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.Radical New Technology Could Hand Investors Huge GainsQuantum Computing is the next technological revolution, and it could be even more advanced than AI.While some believed the technology was years away, it is already present and moving fast. Large hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and even Meta and Tesla, are scrambling to integrate quantum computing into their infrastructure.Senior Stock Strategist Kevin Cook reveals 7 carefully selected stocks poised to dominate the quantum computing landscape in his report, Beyond AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Power.Kevin was among the early experts who recognized NVIDIA's enormous potential back in 2016. Now, he has keyed in on what could be "the next big thing" in quantum computing supremacy. Today, you have a rare chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this opportunity.See Top Quantum Stocks Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV): Free Stock Analysis Report Chubb Limited (CB): Free Stock Analysis Report Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF): Free Stock Analysis Report The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks