July Retail Sales in Line With Expectations

It’s a big morning for economic data this Friday, with U.S. Retail Sales and Import/Export Prices for July and Empire State manufacturing for August. Pre-market futures have not moved much on the news — the Dow is +270 points, the S&P 500 is +8 and the Nasdaq -20 points — but bond yields have moved around a bit, first ticking up 2 points on the 10-year and 2-year, and now down two basis points (bps).Retail Sales In-Line, Off Hotter RevisionsU.S. Retail Sales last month came in as expected at +0.5%, cooler than a more heated +0.9% in June, which was revised up 30 bps to +0.9%, the second-highest level of the year. Subtracting auto sales for July, we were in-line with estimates at +0.3%, down half a full point from the upwardly revised +0.8% the previous month. Ex-autos and gas, we ratchet down further: +0.2%, the lightest we’ve seen since May, again off an upwardly revised +0.8% from June. The Control print (core Retail Sales, which finds its way into prominence in other economic data like Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE]) was also +0.5% for July, down from the 30-bps upward revision in June to +0.8%.Imports Heating Up, Exports Cooling OffJuly Import Prices jumped much higher than expected to +0.4% from a consensus estimate of 0.0%. This follows a downward revision from the prior month: to -0.1% from +0.1% reported a month ago. This +0.4% print is the hottest level since April 2024. Subtracting fuel prices, +0.3% is the figure, up from the downwardly revised -0.2% from June. Year over year, we’re now three-straight months at -0.2%.Exports for July went the opposite direction: +0.1%, from +0.5% reported for June. Year over year, Exports are down to +2.2% from +2.6% from the month-ago report. Generally speaking, this is a suboptimal position on trade: paying more for Imports while getting less for Exports. Then again, one month’s worth of data does not a trend make.The bigger question is that which is asked while looking through the prism of tariffs: who’s paying them? If Import Prices are going up, this is a signal that U.S. trading partners are not absorbing tariff costs — otherwise this metric would be trending down, not up. Again, we won’t make too much of July trade data, but we should be paying attention to these numbers closely as time unfolds.Empire State Numbers Higher than ExpectedThe monthly manufacturing report for New York State — the Empire State Index — came in higher than expected at 11.9, which is the second highest month since November of last year. It’s also the second-straight positive Empire State number after four straight months in the negative. This is regional data on the goods-producing side, but just like trade data, it’s worth keeping an eye on as our economy continues to transition.What to Expect from the Stock Market Going ForwardThe S&P 500 looks to keep its winning streak alive, establishing new record closing highs for the majority of the week so far. There is more econ data coming out 15 minutes before and a half hour after today’s opening bell, which is worth considering as well. Next week brings us a number of housing data reports and, later in the week, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell as he discusses potential rate cuts at the Fed’s September meeting.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockThis under-the-radar company specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. And it's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $971 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free reportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks