Phillips 66 (PSX) Down 1.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Phillips 66 (PSX). Shares have lost about 1.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Phillips 66 due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.Phillips 66 Q3 Earnings Beat on Higher Realized Refining MarginsPhillips 66 has reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $2.52 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.07. The bottom line also improved from the year-ago quarter’s $2.04.Total quarterly revenues of $35 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30 billion. However, the top line declined from the year-ago level of $36.2 billion.Strong quarterly earnings can be primarily attributed to higher realized refining margins worldwide. However, lower contributions from the chemical segment partially offset the positives.Segmental ResultsMidstream:The segment generated adjusted pre-tax quarterly earnings of $697 million, up from $672 million in the year-ago quarter. The reported figure is slightly below our estimate of $706 million. The outperformance was primarily driven by stronger results in the NGL business, which more than offset a slight moderation in the Transportation segment.Chemicals:The unit reported adjusted pre-tax earnings of $176 million, a significant decrease from $342 million in the prior-year quarter. The reported figure also missed our estimate of $304.7 million. The segment was impacted by weaker polyethylene chain margins, driven by lower global chemical prices and higher feedstock costs.Refining:The segment reported adjusted pre-tax earnings of $430 million, reversing from a loss of $67 million in the year-ago quarter. The reported figure also outpaced our estimate of $80.9 million. The improvement can be attributed to higher realized refining margins, driven by improved market crack spreads.Realized refining margins worldwide increased to $12.15 per barrel from the year-ago quarter’s $8.31. In the Central Corridor and Gulf Coast, margins increased to $15.82 and $8.74 per barrel from the year-ago quarter’s $14.19 and $6.39, respectively.The West Coast’s margins improved to $12.31 per barrel from $4.34 in the year-ago quarter. In the Atlantic Basin/Europe, the metric increased to $11.94 per barrel from $5.87 a year ago.Marketing & Specialties:Adjusted pre-tax earnings declined to $477 million from $583 million in the year-ago quarter. The reported figure beat our projection of $392.2 million. The decline can be attributed to lower marketing fuel margins.Realized marketing fuel margins in the United States declined to $2.04 per barrel from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $2.45, and the same in the international markets went down to $5.37 per barrel from $6.19 a year ago.Renewable Fuels:The segment reported an adjusted pre-tax loss of $43 million, narrower than the $116-million loss in the year-ago quarter. Our model projected an adjusted pre-tax loss of $61.9 million.  Costs & ExpensesTotal costs and expenses in the third quarter decreased to $34.8 billion from $35.8 billion in the year-ago period. Our projection for the same was pinned at $26.1 billion.Financial ConditionPhillips 66 generated $1.2 billion in net cash from operations in the reported quarter, an increase from $1.1 billion in the year-ago period. The company’s capital expenditure and investments totaled $541 million. It paid out dividends of $484 million in the third quarter.As of Sept. 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $2 billion. Total debt was $21.8 billion, reflecting a debt-to-capitalization of 44%.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.The consensus estimate has shifted 24.91% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Phillips 66 has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Phillips 66 has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Performance of an Industry PlayerPhillips 66 belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry. Another stock from the same industry, Valero Energy (VLO), has gained 2.6% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2025.Valero Energy reported revenues of $32.17 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -2.2%. EPS of $3.66 for the same period compares with $1.14 a year ago.Valero Energy is expected to post earnings of $3.31 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +417.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +29.4%.The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Valero Energy. 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Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Phillips 66 (PSX): Free Stock Analysis Report Valero Energy Corporation (VLO): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks