Should You Hold or Sell BlackBerry Stock Before Q2 Earnings Release?

BlackBerry Limited BB is set to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Sept. 25.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line is pinned at 1 cent and has remained unchanged in the past 60 days.BB expects second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues to be in the $115-$125 million range. The consensus estimate is pinned at $125 million, down 13.8% year over year.BB has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 116.67%.What Our Model Predicts for BBOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BlackBerry this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.BB has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Factors to Focus on Ahead of BB’s Q2 EarningsBB’s performance is expected to have benefited from strength in the QNX segment (former IoT division), particularly solid demand for its solutions across the advanced driver assistance systems market and digital cockpit domains. Growing momentum seen in QNX Cabin among auto OEMs further cushions its prospects.BlackBerry is actively expanding into the general embedded markets (GEM). Increasing traction for its next-generation version of QNX operating system SDP 8.0 (across automotive, rail medical, industrial and robotic verticals) is likely to have driven QNX revenues in the to be reported quarter. In the last reported quarter, BB noted that GEM now makes up 43% of the total SDP 8.0 pipeline, which grew 55% in the quarter.On the last earnings call, management highlighted that it sees GEM as a potentially larger opportunity than automotive, with the added benefit of diversifying away from cyclical exposures in the auto industry. Also, BB is working on increasing its share in the auto space by offering pre-integrated middleware as part of a vehicle platform. This effort is supported by collaborations with Vector and TTTECH, announced earlier in 2025.It launched the QNX Hypervisor 8.0 in the fiscal first quarter. This solution enables multiple guest OS to run alongside safety-critical QNX workloads on the same chip. The solution is likely to gain traction amid increasing autonomous vehicle production. This bodes well for BB.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFor the fiscal second quarter, management has guided QNX revenue to be $55-$60 million and adjusted EBITDA to $10-$13 million. Amid macro uncertainty, softness in auto production volumes and elongated buying cycles due to supply chain concerns and tariff-related disruptions remain concerns. Fluctuations in production volumes could negatively impact royalty revenues in the fiscal second quarter.Moving on to the Secure Communications division, the performance for this segment is likely to have been driven by healthy uptake of the Secusmart, UEM endpoint management and AtHoc critical event management solutions. On the last earnings call, BlackBerry noted that AtHoc secured FedRAMP High authorization, significantly strengthening its competitive moat in the U.S. federal market as well as Germany and Canada.Secusmart witnessed solid performance in the last reported quarter, mainly driven by large deals with the German government. Apart from the core German market, the global pipeline is growing, especially in defense, as governments seek more secure alternatives to consumer-grade platforms.Despite longer sales cycles, BlackBerry remains confident in closing more Secusmart deals this year. With a strong pipeline ahead, it has raised full-year revenue guidance by $4 million to $234-$244 million and adjusted EBITDA to $37-$47 million (16–19%). For the second quarter, BlackBerry expects revenues to be in the band of $54-$59 million and adjusted EBITDA of $3-$6 million.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchBlackBerry has guided to operating cash usage in the range of $5 million to $15 million for the fiscal second quarter, primarily due to tax payments.Macro uncertainty and forex headwinds aside, BlackBerry also faces increasing competitive pressure in both QNX and cybersecurity businesses.BB Stock vs. IndustryBB’s shares have declined 5.2% in the past six months, significantly underperforming the Internet Software industry’s growth of 25%. The broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the S&P 500 composite have registered gains of 30.6% and 17.2%, respectively.Price PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchBlackberry has underperformed its peers (within the broader cybersecurity space), such as CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc CRWD and SentinelOne S. CrowdStrike is up 34.8% while SentinelOne and Fortinet FTNT have registered declines of 5.1% and 15.7%. respectively over the same time frame.BB Trades at a DiscountBB stock is trading at a discount, with a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 4.54X compared with the Internet Software industry’s 6.01X.  Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFortinet, SentinelOne and CrowdStrike are trading at multiples of 8.4X, 5.63X and 23.22X, respectively, compared with the Security industry’s multiple of 13.36X.BB Investment ConsiderationsStrength in QNX and expanding traction in GEMs provide long-term growth visibility. Secure Communications momentum, especially with government contracts, adds stability despite elongated sales cycles. The company’s impressive earnings surprise history and improving fundamentals bode well. However, auto market cyclicality, macro headwinds, and rising competition in cybersecurity weigh on near-term performance.For now, holding BB stock remains the most prudent strategy, allowing investors to benefit from its growth prospects while navigating external risks. New investors could wait for a more favorable entry point. Free Report: 3 Software Stocks Poised to SkyrocketSoftware stocks are poised to catapult higher in the coming months (and years) thanks to several factors, especially the explosive growth of AI. Zacks' urgent report reveals 3 top software stocks to own right now.Access the report free today >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report SentinelOne, Inc. (S): Free Stock Analysis Report Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT): Free Stock Analysis Report BlackBerry Limited (BB): Free Stock Analysis Report CrowdStrike (CRWD): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks