Vail Resorts (MTN) Down 11.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Vail Resorts (MTN). Shares have lost about 11.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Vail Resorts due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.Vail Resorts Q1 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues MissVail Resorts reported mixed first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, revenues missed the estimate but increased from the prior year's reported figure.In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Vail Resorts' performance was supported by strong visitation at its Australian resorts, aided by favorable weather and the successful launch of the Epic Australia Four-Day Pass. Pass sales also improved meaningfully, reflecting increased paid media investments and a stronger mix of higher-value unlimited pass products. Additional momentum came from solid performance in the Northeast, Whistler Blackcomb and Switzerland, while the company’s robust liquidity position further reinforced its overall financial resilience.However, poor early-season weather in the Rockies and Tahoe reduced visitation and local pass sales, and rising costs continued to pressure margins despite efficiency improvements. In spite of these conditions, Vail Resorts kept its fiscal 2026 EBITDA and net income guidance unchanged.MTN’s Q1 Earnings & RevenuesIn the quarter under review, the company incurred an adjusted loss per share of $5.20, slightly narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $5.23. In the year-ago quarter, it had reported an adjusted loss per share of $4.61.Quarterly net revenues amounted to $271 million, missing the consensus estimate of $271.3 million by 0.09%. However, the top line increased 4.2% on a year-over-year basis.Segmental Results of MTNVail Resorts reports through two segments, Mountain and Lodging.Mountain: This segment generated net revenues of $185.2 million in the fiscal first quarter, up 6.9% year over year. The figure surpassed our model’s projection of $174.8 million. In the quarter under review, revenues from dining inched down 4.1% year over year to $19.8 million.Revenues from retail/rental increased 4.3% year over year to $30.8 million. That said, revenues from ski school and lift increased 15.3% and 22.8%, respectively, year over year.The segment’s reported EBITDA loss amounted to $142.6 million in the fiscal first quarter compared with $144.1 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Operating expenses totaled $328.9 million, up 2.9% year over year.Lodging: Total net revenues in the reported quarter were $85.7 million, down 1.4% year over year. The figure missed our projection of $96.4 million.In the fiscal quarter, the segment’s EBITDA was $2.9 million compared with $4.4 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Operating expenses in the segment increased 0.3% year over year to $82.8 million.Operating Results of MTNVail Resorts reported a consolidated EBITDA loss of $128.2 million in the fiscal quarter, up from $124.6 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Operating expenses totaled $413.4 million compared with $403.6 million reported in the year-ago quarter.MTN’s Balance SheetCash and cash equivalents as of Oct. 1, 2025, totaled $581.5 million compared with $403.8 million reported in the year-ago quarter.Net long-term debt amounted to $2.6 billion at the end of the fiscal first quarter compared with $2.7 billion as of Oct. 1, 2024.As of Oct. 31, 2025, the company had total cash and revolver availability of approximately $1.5 billion.Other Updates of MTNVail Resorts completed the North American pass selling period with pass units down 2% year over year, while pass sales dollars increased 3%. Trends accelerated late in the cycle from Sept. 20 to Dec. 5, 2025, driven by expanded paid media efforts, with units down just 1% and sales dollars up 6%. The company now has approximately 2.3 million committed passholders for the 2025-26 season, expected to generate about $1 billion in revenues. Management noted that unusually weak early-season snowfall at Western resorts likely weighed on local pass sales, but overall advance-commitment momentum remained solid.MTN Reaffirms FY26 GuidanceIn fiscal 2026, Vail Resorts still expects net income (attributable to Vail Resorts) of $201 million to $276 million, and Resort Reported EBITDA is still expected in the range of $842 million to $898 million.The company expects its Resource Efficiency Transformation plan to deliver an additional $38 million in cost savings in fiscal 2026 compared with the prior year. The initiative also remains on track to generate over $100 million in annual recurring savings by fiscal 2027.Guidance reflects efficiency savings and normalized Australian weather, partially offset by lower pass unit sales and cost inflation.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.VGM ScoresCurrently, Vail Resorts has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Vail Resorts has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 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Click to get this free report Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks