Will Biogen Beat on Q3 Earnings? Leqembi, Skyclarys Could Hold the Key

We expect Biogen BIIB to beat expectations when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 30, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company's earnings beat expectations by 39.2%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $2.34 billion and $3.89 per share, respectively.Factors to Consider for BiogenIn the third quarter, lower sales of Biogen’s multiple sclerosis (“MS”) drugs are likely to have been offset by sequential revenue growth from new products.Sales of Biogen’s MS drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri are likely to have declined due to generic competition for Tecfidera globally, biosimilar competition for Tysabri in Europe and rising competitive pressure in the MS market.Biogen believes that the MS revenue decline will be steeper in the second half than the first due to increased competitive pressure on the ex-U.S. MS business, particularly accelerating generic competition for Tecfidera in Europe.The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for third-quarter sales of Tecfidera are pegged at $158.0 million and $162.9 million, respectively.The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Tysabri are pegged at $370 million and $346.9 million, respectively.Sales of another MS drug, Vumerity, are expected to have risen due to higher demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Vumerity are pegged at $173.0 million and $169.6 million, respectively.Sales of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, are likely to have declined due to lower demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Spinraza are pegged at $373.0 million and $360.0 million, respectively.Sales of Biogen’s newly launched drug Skyclarys for Friedreich’s ataxia are likely to have improved sequentially, backed by continued demand growth and geographic expansion outside the United States. However, some Medicare discount dynamics might have tempered sequential growth in the United States.Biogen believes that the pace of growth in the U.S. market will vary from quarter to quarter, depending on the time taken to reach patients. In the ex-U.S. market, Skyclarys’ sales were hurt by the unfavorable timing of shipments in certain markets in the second quarter, a trend likely to have reversed in the third quarter.Another new drug, Zurzuvae’s sales are likely to have continued to rise on a sequential basis in the third quarter, backed by strong patient demand. Zurzuvae was approved in the EU in September.Biogen had a collaboration with Sage Therapeutics for Zurzuvae. Supernus Pharmaceuticals SUPN acquired Sage Therapeutics in July 2025.Contract manufacturing and royalty revenues and Alzheimer’s collaboration revenues are expected to have risen in the quarter. Alzheimer’s collaboration revenues include Biogen’s 50% share of net product revenues and cost of sales (including royalties) from Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi (lecanemab), developed in collaboration with Eisai.Leqembi sales improved sequentially in the past four quarters, with the positive trend expected to have continued in the third quarter. Leqembi sales are recorded by Eisai. Leqembi has already been launched in the United States, Japan, China and some other countries. Leqembi was approved in Europe in April 2025, which may have contributed to the drug’s sales growth in the third quarter.A less frequent maintenance intravenous dosing version of Leqembi was approved by the FDA in January 2025, while a subcutaneous autoinjector for maintenance dosing was approved in August. This version, to be marketed under the brand name Leqembi Iqlik, was launched in October.BIIB’s Earnings Surprise HistoryThe company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.16%, on average.Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Biogen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Biogen Inc. QuoteBiogen’s stock has declined 1.9% so far this year against an increase of 9.2% for the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat Our Model Says for BIIBOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Biogen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is +1.08% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.94 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.89. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3 currently.Stock to ConsiderHere's a drug/biotech stock that has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:Novartis NVS has an Earnings ESP of +0.30% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Novartis’ stock has risen 35.3% so far this year. NVS beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. On average, Novartis witnessed an earnings surprise of 6.20% in the last four quarters. Novartis is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Oct. 28.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockThis under-the-radar company specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. And it's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $971 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Novartis AG (NVS): Free Stock Analysis Report Biogen Inc. (BIIB): Free Stock Analysis Report Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks