Barrick Mining Pops 51% in 3 Months: Here's How to Play the Stock

Barrick Mining Corporation’s B shares have rallied 50.8% in the past three months, thanks to the surge in gold prices to historic highs driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, economic and tariff-related uncertainties and a weaker U.S. dollar.  Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 35.8% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 4.3% in the past three months. Among its gold mining peers, Newmont Corporation NEM, Kinross Gold Corporation KGC and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM have rallied 48.6%, 48.2% and 26.5%, respectively, over the same period.B’s 3-month Price Performance Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchB stock broke out above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on May 30, 2025.  Barrick is also currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA has been reading higher than the 200-day SMA since the golden crossover on April 9, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.B Trades Above 50-Day SMA Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchLet’s take a look at Barrick’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.Key Projects to Underpin Production Growth for BarrickBarrick is well-placed to benefit from the progress in key growth projects, which should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects, including Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are underway. These projects are advancing on schedule and within budget, laying the groundwork for the next generation of profitable production. The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. The project has progressed to a prefeasibility study on the back of a successful drilling program, which shows significant resource growth potential. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase. The first production is expected by the end of 2028. Moreover, the $2-billion Super Pit Expansion Project at its Lumwana mine is progressing steadily, accelerating its shift into a Tier One copper mine. Barrick stated that the Lumwana expansion is the result of a significant turnaround, transforming the mine from an underperforming asset into a vital part of both its global copper portfolio and Zambia’s long-term development strategy. The expansion is expected to deliver 240,000 tons of copper production annually.           Barrick’s Strong Liquidity & Cash Flows Bode WellBarrick has a solid liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, positioning it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, drive shareholder value and reduce debt. At the end of third-quarter 2025, Barrick’s cash and cash equivalents were around $5 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $2.4 billion in the quarter, up 105% year over year. Free cash flow surged to around $1.5 billion from $444 million in the prior-year quarter. Barrick’s board, in February 2025, authorized a new program for the repurchase of up to $1 billion of its outstanding common shares. It repurchased shares worth $1 billion under this program during the first nine months of 2025, including $589 million in the third quarter.       Barrick offers a dividend yield of 1.5% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 32% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 5.8%.Higher Gold Prices to Drive B’s Margins and Cash FlowRallying gold prices should translate into strong profit margins and free cash flow generation for Barrick. Gold prices saw an unprecedented rally in 2025, mainly attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump that intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide accumulated gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies. Escalating geopolitical tensions, including the unrest in Iran with the possibility of U.S. intervention, a weaker greenback, fresh tariff threats and renewed concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, drove bullion to record levels recently, with prices rocketing to a fresh high of nearly $5,600 per ounce last week. The record-breaking rally in gold hit a speed bump earlier this week, partly due to aggressive profit-booking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar after hitting a four-year low. These, along with policy uncertainties following President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, led to a steep fall in gold prices to below $4,900 per ounce. Nevertheless, gold prices are again rising on bargain hunting following the massive selloff. Sustained central-bank purchases and persistent safe-haven demand tied to prevailing geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainties are likely to continue to support gold prices.Barrick Hamstrung by Higher Production CostsBarrick, however, is challenged by higher costs, which may weigh on its margins. Its cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 3% and 2% year over year, respectively, in the third quarter, although declining from the previous quarter. AISC of $1,538 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce. Lower year-over-year production, partly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, also contributed to the rise in its unit costs. Barrick’s consolidated gold production fell 12% year over year to 829,000 ounces in the third quarter.For 2025, Barrick continues to see total cash costs per ounce of $1,050-$1,130 and AISC in the range of $1,460-$1,560 per ounce. These projections suggest a year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the respective ranges.Tepid Production View Dampens B’s ProspectsThe company expects attributable gold production in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces for full-year 2025, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto, which is temporarily suspended. This projection suggests a year-over-year decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024. Higher production from Pueblo Viejo, Turquoise Ridge, Porgera and Kibali, along with stable performance across Carlin and Cortez, is projected to be offset by reduced production across Veladero and Phoenix. Lower production is expected to weigh on the company’s performance.Barrick’s Earnings Estimates NorthboundEarnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 has been revised higher over the same time frame. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 80.2% and 58.4%, respectively. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchA Look at Barrick Stock’s ValuationB stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 13.74X, a roughly 3.8% premium to the industry’s average of 13.24X. It is trading at a discount to Agnico Eagle, Newmont and Kinross Gold.  Barrick and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B, while Newmont and Agnico Eagle carry a Value Score of C.B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, AEM & KGC Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFinal Thoughts: Hold Onto B SharesBarrick’s efforts to enhance production, its solid financial position, healthy earnings outlook, appealing valuation and reliable dividend yield present a favorable setup. Elevated gold prices should further support profitability and strengthen cash flow. However, higher costs and weaker production call for caution. Therefore, retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.       You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Free Report: Profiting from the 2nd Wave of AI ExplosionThe next phase of the AI explosion is poised to create significant wealth for investors, especially those who get in early. It will add literally trillion of dollars to the economy and revolutionize nearly every part of our lives.Investors who bought shares like Nvidia at the right time have had a shot at huge gains.But the rocket ride in the "first wave" of AI stocks may soon come to an end. The sharp upward trajectory of these stocks will begin to level off, leaving exponential growth to a new wave of cutting-edge companies.Zacks' AI Boom 2.0: The Second Wave report reveals 4 under-the-radar companies that may soon be shining stars of AI’s next leap forward.Access AI Boom 2.0 now, absolutely free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Newmont Corporation (NEM): Free Stock Analysis Report Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): Free Stock Analysis Report Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): Free Stock Analysis Report Barrick Mining Corporation (B): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks