Can F Keep Growing as EV Momentum Falters Post Incentive Withdrawal?

Ford F managed a modest sales uptick in October, even as its electric vehicle momentum sharply reversed. The U.S. automaker reported total sales of 175,584 units, up 1.6% year over year, buoyed by resilient demand for gasoline-powered vehicles. Year to date, Ford’s U.S. deliveries have risen 6.6% to 1.83 million vehicles.But beneath these headline numbers lies a growing divergence between Ford’s legacy business and its electric ambitions. After a record-breaking September, Ford’s EV sales tumbled in October — a reminder of how dependent demand had become on federal tax incentives.EV Sales Take a Post-Incentive NosediveOctober’s figures showed a sharp cooling in Ford’s electric vehicle segment following the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit at the end of September. Despite sluggish EV sales in October, Ford has sold 74,309 EVs year to date, up just 0.5% from last year.Ford posted record Q3 EV deliveries as buyers rushed to secure the incentive. But EV sales dropped nearly 25% year over year to 4,709 units in October. Mustang Mach-E fell 12.3% in October to 2,906 units, though it rose 15% year to date. F-150 Lightning, whose production is currently paused due to the fire at the Novelis plant, slid 17.2% to 1,543 units. The E-Transit cargo van plunged 76% to only 260 units.The retreat underscores the role of federal incentives in sustaining EV demand. According to Edmunds, leasing accounted for about 71% of financed EV purchases in September as consumers rushed to take advantage of the credit. That share slipped to 60% in October once the incentive expired, while average transaction prices jumped from $60,167 to $65,021, reflecting fewer discounts and a higher mix of premium models. The resulting affordability squeeze clearly hit EV volumes of many companies.Many of the auto biggies don’t disclose their monthly sales figures anymore, including Ford’s close peer General Motors GM. Still, available data paints a clear picture of industry-wide softness. Per CNBC, Toyota TM sold just 18 units of its all-electric BZ model in October, plunging from 1,401 a year earlier and 61 units in September. Hyundai and Kia also reported steep declines in their top EV models, with sales falling between 52% and 71% year over year. The pullback looks even sharper on a month-to-month basis due to post-incentive drops, as September capped a record quarter for U.S. EV sales.Gas Models Pick Up the SlackWhile electric sales faltered, Ford’s gasoline lineup kept the company’s overall numbers in positive territory. Truck sales rose 4.9% in October to 105,771 units, with pickups remaining the backbone of Ford’s business. The F-Series, Ford’s top profit driver, posted a small but meaningful 0.7% gain to 67,930 units.Other gas models delivered stronger rebounds. Bronco climbed 14.4%, Ranger surged 48%, and the gas-powered Mustang jumped 43% to 3,845 units, finally outselling its electric counterpart after months of lagging. Explorer and Expedition also notched modest gains, helping offset declines in the discontinued Edge and the aging Escape, which saw sales drop 16.4%.Hybrid sales softened 4% to 17,498 units in October, but were up nearly 20% year to date. Ford’s luxury brand Lincoln struggled, with sales down 13.4% to 8,100 units. Despite a 37.6% jump in Navigator deliveries, every other Lincoln model saw double-digit declines. Even so, Lincoln’s year-to-date sales remain slightly positive, up 3.6% at 83,879 vehicles.Final ThoughtsThe post-tax credit slump in EV sales was expected, yet it emphasizes how much Ford’s electric growth depends on incentives and pricing flexibility. For now, the company’s traditional truck and SUV lines — particularly the F-Series, Ranger, and Bronco — continue to do the heavy lifting.Ford’s challenge will be balancing that profitable legacy with an EV business that’s still finding its footing in a tougher, incentive-free environment. Whether Ford can keep growing as EV momentum falters will depend on how quickly the company can recalibrate production, manage costs, and reignite demand without federal tailwinds.The Zacks Rundown for FordShares of Ford have gained 22.8% over the past year, underperforming the industry. General Motors and Toyota shares have risen 27% and 18%, respectively, over the same period. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFrom a valuation standpoint, F trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.32, below the industry average. It carries a Value Score of A. In comparison to this, General Motors and Toyota trade at 0.35 and 0.83, respectively. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchTake a look at how Ford’s EPS estimates have been revised over the past 90 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFord stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Ford Motor Company (F): Free Stock Analysis Report Toyota Motor Corporation (TM): Free Stock Analysis Report General Motors Company (GM): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks