Can MP Materials Sustain Its Explosive NdPr Growth Momentum Ahead?

MP Materials MP reported a solid 283% year-over-year surge in NdPr (neodymium and praseodymium) revenues in the second quarter of 2025. NdPr sales volume surged 226% year over year to 443 MT from the year-ago quarter, following sales of 464 MT in the first quarter of 2025, which also marked a solid 246% increase year over year. The increase in NdPr sales volumes is being driven by the continued transition to production of midstream products, primarily NdPr oxide. Pricing has also contributed to revenue growth in the second quarter. Realized NdPr prices averaged $57 per kg in the second quarter, up 19% year over year on improved market pricing. It also came in higher than the average of $52 per kg in the first quarter of 2025. The company expects similar realized pricing for the third quarter of 2025. This compares favorably with $47 per kg in the third quarter of 2024. In April 2025, in response to China’s retaliatory tariffs and export controls, MP Materials made the strategic decision to cease shipments of rare earth concentrate to China. Per the company’s agreement with the United States Department of Defense in July, it has halted the sale of all products to China to establish a domestic supply chain for rare earth products.Following this move, prices of NdPr oxide have gained. Higher production volumes of NdPr in the ongoing quarter and consequently, sales volumes and higher pricing, are expected to boost the company’s Material segment’s revenues. NdPr production volumes continue to increase with further progress on process optimization and ramp. This, higher production and sales volumes of NdPr in the ongoing quarter and consequently, sales volumes along with higher pricing, are expected to drive its NdPr revenues higher in the forthcoming quarterly performances. The significance of MP’s progress is heightened by the strategic importance of rare earth supply in the US. Its Mountain Pass mine in California remains the nation’s sole producer of high-purity NdPr oxide, an essential material for high-strength neodymium iron boron magnets.Lakewood, CO-based Energy Fuels UUUU is gearing up to play a part in building the domestic NdPr supply chain. Energy Fuels demonstrated its ability to separate NdPr on a commercial scale through the commissioning of its Phase 1 REE separations circuit at its White Mesa mill in April 2024. Samples of this NdPr product have been sent to permanent magnet manufacturers and other companies around the world for product qualification. Initial testing responses have been positive.Perth, Australia-based Lynas Rare Earths Limited LYSDY engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia.  At the core of Lynas’ operations is its high-grade, long-life Mt Weld mine in Western Australia, which is considered one of the world’s premier rare earth deposits. Lynas is building a new Rare Earths Processing Facility in Texas to separate pre-processed mixed rare earths.In its recently reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, Lynas achieved record NdPr production at 2,080 tons (a 38% increase year over year), exceeding the 2,000-ton mark for the first time. The company has produced 6,558 tons of NdPr in fiscal 2025 compared with 5,655 tons in fiscal 2024.MP’s Price Performance, Valuation & EstimatesMP Materials shares have skyrocketed 323% so far this year compared with the industry’s 20.1% growth. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has risen 18.1%, while the S&P 500 has gained 9.2%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchMP is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 22.90X, a significant premium to the industry’s 1.15X.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ 2025 earnings is pegged at a loss of 32 cents per share. The estimate for 2026 is pegged at a profit of 96 cents per share, indicating a solid improvement. The estimates for both 2025 and 2026 have moved up in the past 60 days, as shown below.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Radical New Technology Could Hand Investors Huge GainsQuantum Computing is the next technological revolution, and it could be even more advanced than AI.While some believed the technology was years away, it is already present and moving fast. 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